Dot-com bubble, 9 / 11, sub-prime crisis: The past decade was a rollercoaster ride for shareholders. Plugging, the Western indices had dramatic setbacks – in the end, the Dow stood at the same level as in 1999. Among the winners are emerging markets and commodities.
Hamburg – Every boom brings forth its own stock market gurus. Ten years ago it was the market letter writer Harry S. Dent, who toured with bold predictions before the new millennium by the U.S. financial news channel. The main forecast, published in 1998 his bestseller "The golden 2000s" was, was thanks to the purchasing power of the baby boomers Dow Jones until the end of the next decade, up to 40,000 and the Nasdaq Composite shoot up to 20,000 meters.
Ten years later, with some investors who are fourth in the U.S. leading index and well-tenth of the U.S. technology stock exchange did not even unhappy. When the stock markets in October, climbed over the magical 10,000-point mark could hardly happy about it, investors, was the most important barometer of the world price but where it had noted in March 1999 before.
"The business of stock forecasts should be best left to fools," because even mocked the renowned Wall Street Journal to the wild ups and downs in the past decade. Although 2009 will reach around the globe as an entirely good trading year in history, ended the decade for most of the indices of the western world still in deficit. What went wrong?
Massive declines rock markets
"The lost decade is the result of a single string of large negative individual events on the international stock markets," says Gerd Wirtz Benne, director of asset management fund SJB skyline. "Only the IT bubble in 2000, then 2001, the 9/11-Anschläge, from summer 2007, the subprime crisis."
Indeed, the extent of disruption is hard to overestimate: lost in the first bear market of 2000 to 2003 German stock market as never before since records began in the late 19 Century. In order to incredible 72 percent of it came from the long-time high of 8065 points in March 2000 at 2188 points just three years later to bottom. "Historically, we have already priced in a Hitler", bringing the stock book author Bernd Niquet the magnitude of the selloff to the point.
Almost half years since it has lasted well until the German benchmark index reached a new high – and then only with the very last character in July 2007, when the first signs of the subprime crisis were already visible. Up to 8106 points rekordhungrige shareholders pushed the Dax 17 July 2007, the highest level of the decade – but then began the rapid descent. This time was after one and a half years, the next bear market low of reach – namely, at exactly 3588 meters in this March.
Since then, the stock markets, accompanied by many doubts of the traders who went back up until the 6000-point mark just before year end. However, still missing almost exactly thousand points or 16 percent level for the start of the new millennium. Conversely, are expected to shareholders, in late 1999, a DAX index gained certificate had in the past decade to cope with a decline in value of just under one percent per year – before capital depreciation due to inflation, mind you.
That is a damning record for an asset class that will bring long-term returns to its shareholders. But compared with other indices, investors were ill served no time with their Dax-Investment: Who had infected some of the euphoria on the Neuer Markt and the end of 1999 in the booming NEMAX50 invested, now stands there with a fairly empty-handed at 5089 points was The benchmark index of the Neuer Markt, ten years ago from the Decade, at 810 meters, recorded the follow-Index TecDAX today – a staggering loss of value of 84 percent.
Falling U.S. dollar devalued investments
Even on Wall Street, from the shock of the Dot.com crashes, the dislocation after 11 September 2001, and especially the subprime crisis emanated, was to be earned in the past ten years, nothing. The Nasdaq Composite is still 45 percent below its closing by the end of 1999, while the broad-based S & P 500 index in the nearly ten years, lost 24 percent of its value. The Dow Jones keeps the other hand, with a reduction of only nine percent, still the best.
This applies only to U.S. investors. Due to the massive depreciation of the U.S. dollar have been investing in American companies for investors in the euro area that is often enough to lose money. Almost pari euro and the dollar started on 1 In January the new millennium – at around $ 1.42, the euro traded at this time. This has huge implications: In a Dow Jones Certificate in the euro area investors have lost it actually hefty 37 percent, with a commitment to the S & P 500 47 percent, while Nasdaq Composite ETF with an even incurred losses amounting to 61 percent were.
Small caps and emerging demand
But all this should not obscure the fact that in the past ten years, money could be earned in shares. Around the second and third row of the German markets. Sun noted the lowest values of index SDax on 31.12.1999 at 2889 meters, but today at 3561 points – a considerable increase of as much as 23 percent. Shareholders have rightly deserve to have the end of 1999, the rotation of blue chips gone through the caps: The MDAX namely, boosted mainly by price rockets as Puma Star on the big stock market and increased in the past decade, at a proud 82 percent.
A multiple of this return was achieved in the emerging stock markets. "That was the decade of the emerging markets," says Justin Walters of Bespoke Investment Group. "Specific markets with high growth potential have benefited," said SJB chief Benne Wirtz. They were all over the place, the so-called BRIC markets, raised the Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neal, in his seminal 2001 study of the baptism.
While the listings on the mainland, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges more than doubled, put the Indian benchmark index, Sensex, which is estimated by the Bombay Stock Exchange, with more than 200 percent. The Brazilian benchmark Bovespa gained since the turn of the millennium even 300 percent in value. All this, however, was provided by the boom in Russia’s vast empire in the Shadows: The RTS in Moscow despite a prized set crashartigen selloff last fall to play in this decade by more than a thousand percent.
The decade of the commodity markets
Drivers of the huge boom in the Russian stock market was the real success story of the decade – the rise of raw materials that led to two decades in the shadows. The old antagonism, whereby raw materials are needed if the system suffers from class of shares, so they also apply in this decade.
It cost ten years ago, a barrel of oil just $ 16 – the end of this year, there were approximately $ 73 more than three and a half as much. The precious metals multiplied its value: the end of 1999, the cost per ounce of gold or $ 280, now more than $ 1080 be paid for the currency crisis. The price of silver pulled from five to $ 17.
This shows that there were they so yet, the great bull market in the decade, coming to an end – only that they are not identified Harry S. Dent, but a true investment legend in time. The former "Quantum" fund manager Jim Rogers said already in 2003 by the "commodities super-cycle" – the actual trend of success Nullerjahre. "Help yourself, before they’re hot," Rogers signed in 2005 his eponymous bestseller "raw materials".
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