Monthly Archives: December 2009

The Lost Decade

Dot-com bubble, 9 / 11, sub-prime crisis: The past decade was a rollercoaster ride for shareholders. Plugging, the Western indices had dramatic setbacks – in the end, the Dow stood at the same level as in 1999. Among the winners are emerging markets and commodities.

Hamburg – Every boom brings forth its own stock market gurus. Ten years ago it was the market letter writer Harry S. Dent, who toured with bold predictions before the new millennium by the U.S. financial news channel. The main forecast, published in 1998 his bestseller "The golden 2000s" was, was thanks to the purchasing power of the baby boomers Dow Jones until the end of the next decade, up to 40,000 and the Nasdaq Composite shoot up to 20,000 meters.

Ten years later, with some investors who are fourth in the U.S. leading index and well-tenth of the U.S. technology stock exchange did not even unhappy. When the stock markets in October, climbed over the magical 10,000-point mark could hardly happy about it, investors, was the most important barometer of the world price but where it had noted in March 1999 before.

"The business of stock forecasts should be best left to fools," because even mocked the renowned Wall Street Journal to the wild ups and downs in the past decade. Although 2009 will reach around the globe as an entirely good trading year in history, ended the decade for most of the indices of the western world still in deficit. What went wrong?

Massive declines rock markets

"The lost decade is the result of a single string of large negative individual events on the international stock markets," says Gerd Wirtz Benne, director of asset management fund SJB skyline. "Only the IT bubble in 2000, then 2001, the 9/11-Anschläge, from summer 2007, the subprime crisis."

Indeed, the extent of disruption is hard to overestimate: lost in the first bear market of 2000 to 2003 German stock market as never before since records began in the late 19 Century. In order to incredible 72 percent of it came from the long-time high of 8065 points in March 2000 at 2188 points just three years later to bottom. "Historically, we have already priced in a Hitler", bringing the stock book author Bernd Niquet the magnitude of the selloff to the point.

Almost half years since it has lasted well until the German benchmark index reached a new high – and then only with the very last character in July 2007, when the first signs of the subprime crisis were already visible. Up to 8106 points rekordhungrige shareholders pushed the Dax 17 July 2007, the highest level of the decade – but then began the rapid descent. This time was after one and a half years, the next bear market low of reach – namely, at exactly 3588 meters in this March.

Since then, the stock markets, accompanied by many doubts of the traders who went back up until the 6000-point mark just before year end. However, still missing almost exactly thousand points or 16 percent level for the start of the new millennium. Conversely, are expected to shareholders, in late 1999, a DAX index gained certificate had in the past decade to cope with a decline in value of just under one percent per year – before capital depreciation due to inflation, mind you.

That is a damning record for an asset class that will bring long-term returns to its shareholders. But compared with other indices, investors were ill served no time with their Dax-Investment: Who had infected some of the euphoria on the Neuer Markt and the end of 1999 in the booming NEMAX50 invested, now stands there with a fairly empty-handed at 5089 points was The benchmark index of the Neuer Markt, ten years ago from the Decade, at 810 meters, recorded the follow-Index TecDAX Chart zeigen today – a staggering loss of value of 84 percent.

Falling U.S. dollar devalued investments

Even on Wall Street, from the shock of the crashes, the dislocation after 11 September 2001, and especially the subprime crisis emanated, was to be earned in the past ten years, nothing. The Nasdaq Composite is still 45 percent below its closing by the end of 1999, while the broad-based S & P 500 index in the nearly ten years, lost 24 percent of its value. The Dow Jones keeps the other hand, with a reduction of only nine percent, still the best.

This applies only to U.S. investors. Due to the massive depreciation of the U.S. dollar have been investing in American companies for investors in the euro area that is often enough to lose money. Almost pari euro and the dollar started on 1 In January the new millennium – at around $ 1.42, the euro traded at this time. This has huge implications: In a Dow Jones Certificate in the euro area investors have lost it actually hefty 37 percent, with a commitment to the S & P 500 47 percent, while Nasdaq Composite ETF with an even incurred losses amounting to 61 percent were.

Small caps and emerging demand

But all this should not obscure the fact that in the past ten years, money could be earned in shares. Around the second and third row of the German markets. Sun noted the lowest values of index SDax on 31.12.1999 at 2889 meters, but today at 3561 points – a considerable increase of as much as 23 percent. Shareholders have rightly deserve to have the end of 1999, the rotation of blue chips gone through the caps: The MDAX namely, boosted mainly by price rockets as Puma Star on the big stock market and increased in the past decade, at a proud 82 percent.

A multiple of this return was achieved in the emerging stock markets. "That was the decade of the emerging markets," says Justin Walters of Bespoke Investment Group. "Specific markets with high growth potential have benefited," said SJB chief Benne Wirtz. They were all over the place, the so-called BRIC markets, raised the Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neal, in his seminal 2001 study of the baptism.

While the listings on the mainland, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges more than doubled, put the Indian benchmark index, Sensex, which is estimated by the Bombay Stock Exchange, with more than 200 percent. The Brazilian benchmark Bovespa gained since the turn of the millennium even 300 percent in value. All this, however, was provided by the boom in Russia’s vast empire in the Shadows: The RTS in Moscow despite a prized set crashartigen selloff last fall to play in this decade by more than a thousand percent.

The decade of the commodity markets

Drivers of the huge boom in the Russian stock market was the real success story of the decade – the rise of raw materials that led to two decades in the shadows. The old antagonism, whereby raw materials are needed if the system suffers from class of shares, so they also apply in this decade.

It cost ten years ago, a barrel of oil just $ 16 – the end of this year, there were approximately $ 73 more than three and a half as much. The precious metals multiplied its value: the end of 1999, the cost per ounce of gold or $ 280, now more than $ 1080 be paid for the currency crisis. The price of silver pulled from five to $ 17.

This shows that there were they so yet, the great bull market in the decade, coming to an end – only that they are not identified Harry S. Dent, but a true investment legend in time. The former "Quantum" fund manager Jim Rogers said already in 2003 by the "commodities super-cycle" – the actual trend of success Nullerjahre. "Help yourself, before they’re hot," Rogers signed in 2005 his eponymous bestseller "raw materials".

Perhaps the best free Investment Tip of the past years.

Finally, end with the horror of the year!

What a year! We have survived the swine flu and the scrapping of the fast decline of the SPD and the Growth Acceleration Act, Tokio Hotel and the climate disaster. Nevertheless, 30 remain very last, major questions – and only one, there is a real answer.

Hamburg – What is the meaning of life? When finally invented DVD packaging, which can be opened easily? How’s everything at 20 percent, but not on pet food? Make Nacktscanner slim?

Why not call the swine flu cinnamon muffin flu, which would take much of its menace? Is the economic crisis already over? Who is actually looking at Germany from the radio music? When Josef Ackermann leaves out one time Fettnapf? Why recently, all drink green tea? How many German television has already shown Sissi? Can Schumacher ever even drive a car? Whoever finds Jörg Pilawa good? Why do we still buy Asterix, although it is clear that each new volume will be even worse than before? Who killed Michael Jackson? Monica’s father has five daughters: Lele, Lala, Lulu, Lolo … how is the fifth daughter? Who does actually at the airport aufquatschen a credit card contract? How many buyers of David Foster Wallace ‘Infinite fun "actually read the book, let’s face now?

What to bring all these crisis summit? When Germany will once again wins the World Cup? Can we make jokes about depression? What is again a derivative? Who am I and if so, how many? Why is it so often is reduced to its intrinsic value? Should you get vaccinated now, and if not, why did it? Why the continuous FC Bayern wins since Hoeness is no longer the manager? When Inka Bause sued her hairdresser? What is driving German teacher when Saab no longer exists? Who can tell the difference between CDO and CDS? How is breathable Jopi Heesters yet?

And why that is the last episode of "Private world crisis"?

An exceptional year of exceptional crisis comes to an end – and one years, shall in this column for occasional relaxation in the alarmism industry wanted.

Now everything first grazed on terror: Opel to Arcandor, from source to Porsche. We have survived the swine flu and the scrapping of the fast decline of the SPD and the Growth Acceleration Act, Tokio Hotel and the climate disaster. Is known to stop it when it’s at its best, therefore most terrible.

This explains the crisis is over for – until further notice.

Iceland will pay back billions

Massive pressure from abroad and the threat of national bankruptcy allowed the Government of Iceland have no choice: Parliament blessing from a law that guarantees the repayment of foreign deposits. Embittered people had demonstrated against the bill.

Reykjavík – After the collapse of the Icelandic banks have to repay billions in debt: The Icelandic parliament has approved the repayment of 3.8 billion euros in the UK and the Netherlands.

The law provides for the next 14 years, the gradual payment of the sum of the principal creditors billions of Great Britain and the Netherlands before. As reported, the Icelandic radio online, 33 MPs voted on Wednesday evening in Reykjavík for the information submitted by Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir bill, 30 voted against it. Sigurdardottir had threatened before the vote in the event of a defeat at the end of its left-wing coalition.

The government hopes that this a boost for the battered economy of the country, as well as a tailwind for their efforts to achieve EU accession. The law would avert further economic damage, "said Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson.

Had caused the massive for the small island republic’s debt burden, the collapse of the Icelandic Landsbanki and its Internet subsidiary Icesave last year. The billions of deposits from 340,000 British and Dutch customers were initially guaranteed by the governments in London and The Hague.

Icelanders complain about unfair distribution of burdens

Already in October Sigurdardottir had agreed with the British and the Dutch government on the terms of repayment. The Parliament had, however, guarantee the repayment of fixed-term until 2024, while Britain and the Netherlands were reluctant. The now adopted the law guarantees the payments even beyond that date. The agreed 3.8 billion euros represent over two-thirds of an entire annual budget.

For the 320,000 citizens of Iceland has been the dispute over the terms of repayment at a particularly bitter symbol of anything but fair distribution of burdens crisis: You have to bear the consequences of the collapse of the banks. Embittered people, many of them through the financial crisis, unemployed and hopelessly insolvent, had demonstrated against the collective Icesave repayment of debt.

Iceland was overthrown as a result of turmoil in the financial markets into a deep crisis and needed help from the International Monetary Fund with billionaire will be saved from the national bankruptcy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave much-needed loans to Iceland because of the dispute over the repayment of billions in debt, however, until the end of free-October. Along with loan assistance from the Nordic countries and Poland shared the sum amounted to just under 850 million U.S. dollars. Overall, the IMF, Iceland’s government has pledged 2.1 billion U.S. dollars.

U.S. top manager’s salary cap because

The criticism of the excessive executive pay has Anastasia Kelly apparently unimpressed. The top manager of the lurching U.S. insurance giant AIG has canceled, because they limit their salary was inappropriate. They collected a severance payment in the millions.

Charlotte / USA – From anger over the state-imposed salary cap has a top manager of the embattled U.S. insurance giant AIG leave. The deputy head of the Board Anastasia Kelly had told her resignation, effective immediately, the company announced on Wednesday. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, "Kelly will receive its full compensation in the millions.

The U.S. government had to rescue the U.S. housing crisis in the broken adrift insurer with loans totaling 182.5 billion U.S. dollars and in return acquired 80 percent of the shares.

In November it became known that the AIG CEO Robert Benmosche receives an annual salary of seven million U.S. dollars. Benmosche will receive three million in cash, four million more in shares. He will also get in good business performance bonus of up to 3.5 million U.S. dollars in shares. The salaries of three top executives, including Chief Financial Officer David Duke, were reduced to meet the requirements.

Qatar buys 5% share of all Qatari banks

The Qatari state investment vehicle QIA has bought a share of 5 percent of all banks in the country. The government of the emirate, the financial sector in that fashion.

The economic crisis, the economy struggles in the state oil and loans are harder granted. The Minister of Economy and Finance, Yoesef Hussein Kamal, was yesterday, the penultimate day of the year, the last capital injection have implemented.

The news agency Qatar News Agency, the new injection, accounted for 549 million U.S. dollars (380 million euros) in total, part of a government plan to eventually obtain an interest of 20 percent in local banks.

The Qatar International Islamic Bank confirms the news, saying 464 million riyals (88 million euros) to have received loans from local writing. The Doha Bank confirms in a market notice on the website of the Qatari stock market investment vehicle that is an interest of 5 percent has been taken. In exchange, the bank 369 million riyals (70 million euros). (belga / sam)