Monthly Archives: July 2010

"In Western countries, it does not look good "

Commerzbank-Chefvolkswirt Jörg Krämer: "Der deutsche Aktienmarkt hat fundamental die besten Aussichten." Quelle: Bernd Roselieb

Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer , "The German stock market has fundamentally the best prospects. " Source: Bernd Roselieb

Mr. Kramer, the U.S. economy weakens , the euro – zone and with it the € catching up for weeks. How sustainable is this trend?

The picture is clear at first glance: The economic data from the U.S. have been disappointing of late, while the data from the euro zone, especially Germany, a small positive surprise . Many now say: The euro area is better than the U.S. and it also benefits the euro. But this is a fallacy.

Why ?

The economic expectations for the U.S. to come down . Also, we have lowered our forecast for U.S. growth this year of 3.3 to 2.8 percent. But this is still significantly more than the 1.2 percent economic growth, we expect the euro area. Even after the downwards revisions in the U.S. so it looks a lot better .

Does it look as good too ?

No, it looks good in any Western country. Given the sharpness of the previous break- even growth rates of around three per cent are basically disappointing. Like all countries, the United States to work slowly from the crisis, but they come here faster than other states , in particular most Europeans.

How big is the risk of a backlash ?

A double dip scenario I think is unlikely , but already speaks the extremely expansionary monetary policy in the United States. The current weakness is typical of this phase of the business cycle. After has made in the first phase of the storage building for strong growth, these impulses running from now and the speed decreases. The next pulse comes when the business cycle reached the real economy. This process of rising corporate profits , rising investment and rising employment is already under way, albeit very modest. A relapse into recession threatens my opinion, only when the debt crisis should escalate .

Center of the debt crisis is Europe. Make the euro countries progress?

The states have promised to runterzubringen their deficits and exceed almost all countries are on track or even the targets . The crisis has become less dramatic. This builds confidence , especially in the background is the 750 -billion rescue package. On the bond market sees the show as the risk premiums have declined. And the euro exchange rate reflects that. The real test is still on .

In what way?

In countries like Greece in 2011 is the third consecutive year of recession . The economic pain is growing and this at a time in which decreases the severity of the crisis. The willingness to endure further pain is likely to decline gradually and with it the confession of consolidation. However, the States must be clear that there is no alternative to debt reduction .

How big is the risk that the cuts slow economic growth?

The savings programs burden the periphery countries also , no doubt . But the alternative is an escalation of the debt problems that would be a mega – crisis after themselves. We need to accept the fact that European countries for years hinterhinken . The mixture of housing crisis , private and public indebtedness and rising unemployment has built up over many years. The dissolved not happen overnight.

How strong a negative impact on the German economy crisis ?

Germany has no Teflon economy, run off to the global problems easily. But between Germany and the rest of the euro area a huge gaping chasm. We assume that the German economy grows by 2.5 percent in 2010 and this is forecast after the recent sharp rise in the indicators we Ifo index is conservative.

What does this mean for investors?

The German stock market has fundamentally the best prospects. The German companies are underpin the clear winners of globalization, the current quarterly reports on how well they stand .

The Dax still occurs on the spot?

This is due to the double – dip discussion. The fear is paralyzing investors. If my expectations and confirmed the feared check fails , the stock market should , however, have potential to top. We currently have a very low valuation , the Euro Stoxx is evaluated on the basis of expected profits for 2010 with a P / E of 10.7 . That is significantly below the historical average.

The European and German companies in particular have benefited in recent months by the weakness of the euro. Now, the Euro has risen back above 1.30 dollars. If there is no support?

The current gains of the euro is due to the situation described above , that the expectations in the U.S. are taken anything down. This trend should continue for a while. We see the euro at the end of the third quarter at $ 1.31 , so at a similar level as currently . In the medium term , the superior growth in the U.S. but will also enforce the foreign exchange market. In mid 2011, we expect a euro level of $ 1.20 .

Brüderle wants to attract foreign experts to Germany – HB

2010-07-25_Brüderle_ddp FRANKFURT ( Dow Jones ) – Federal Minister Rainer Brüderle (FDP ) is planning a staff initiative to facilitate skilled foreign workers to move to Germany. ( Reuters photo 🙂

"The subject , like Germany for foreign skilled workers will finally attractive stands at the top of my agenda , "said Brüderle the " Handelsblatt "( HB – Friday edition ). " My concern is to develop a global approach to the skilled foreign workers Germany come. " For this purpose he would invite the business and academics.
Brüderle foretold : "The skills shortages in the coming years a key problem for the German labor market or unemployment. " With three million unemployed, the problem was not so visible. " But the longer the boom lasts , the greater the problem, " said the Minister .
One approach is to view Brüderle the reduction of the income requirements for foreign workers. Also , a welcome money in the economy for foreign workers he considered to be possible. "It is conceivable that some companies who can afford it and have urgent need for foreign skilled workers to pay a Lockprämie "said Brüderle .
DJG / apo / dok

WTO supports China in the chicken dispute with the United States – China Daily

2010-07-30_Hähnchen_ddp SHANGHAI (Dow Jones) – The World Trade Organization WTO has apparently decided in a dispute over the U.S. ban imports of chicken meat from China under the People’s Republic. This is the newspaper China Daily reported on Wednesday citing unnamed sources from the Ministry of Commerce. ( Reuters photo 🙂

The WTO decision was to come into force shortly and will re-open the U.S. market for export of finished chicken breasts from China, the report said.

According to representatives of China Ministry received on Tuesday sent the WTO ruling , however, to learn at first without an official result and more details. The final result will be announced in a month or two , the paper cited its source. Under the current approach is the result that China gains.

In recent months, the trade relations between the U.S. and China had deteriorated noticeably. For example , China had announced in late April , evidence to U.S. poultry imports, with more punitive duties in February after already duties of up to 105.4 % had been introduced ( Dow Jones Food & Agriculture reported).

DJG / DJN / sru / pio / dok

Economic crisis is visible in the German collective merit

2010-07-09_MitarbeiterAutomobil_ddp WIESBADEN (Dow Jones) – The overall development of contract services in Germany slowed in April, as seen with the economic crisis has been delayed . ( Reuters photo 🙂

The negotiated monthly earnings of employees in Germany increased compared with the same month last year only 1.9 % which is lower than in January (up 2.3% ) and as the year 2009 ( up 2.8 % ), such as the Statistical Federal ( Destatis ) on Friday announced . The average increase in tariff earnings figure once again on the consumer prices of 1.0 %.
The slowdown in the rate development leading statisticians largely due to the fact that the high and run with a long term bearing stage accounts which have been completed under different economic conditions. In addition, many of the reporting period were newly completed in premium rates significantly lower than last year.
The slowdown in the rate development was not in all sectors : Sun rose in April, the negotiated monthly earnings in the construction of the year was 3.6% and manufacturing by 2.6 %. With 1.9 % in transport and warehousing average tariff increases have been achieved.
were below-average increases are , for example in trade and hotels and restaurants ( 1,6% ) and in the public sector and the financial and insurance services (both 1.5 %). The lowest level of the tariff increase monthly earnings in the health and social services at 0.9 %.


DJG / dok

Euro zone inflation rises to 1.7 % in July as expected

2010-07-30_Pizzaherstellung_ddp LUXEMBOURG (Dow Jones) – Inflation in the euro zone has increased in July as expected. As the European statistics agency Eurostat on Friday in a preliminary estimate announced that increased the cost of living – measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP ) – by 1.7 % compared to last year. ( Reuters photo 🙂

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had expected this development .
The annual inflation is almost back to within the price stability norm of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) of " below but close to 2 %. " Economists assume, however , that the price pressures subside in the coming months is expected . The increase in inflation in July was due in part to a base effect in energy prices .
Eurostat published in the preliminary estimate no figures for the previous month change in prices or to the various core inflation measures. A detailed pass on price , the statistics office on 16 August to present .

DJG / sgs / apo / dok