Trader on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: Seven plagues for investors Source : dpa
DÜSSELDORF. The first and last day of this week will see the truth. The U.S. statisticians publish figures on Monday for U.S. consumption , then on Friday its employment data for August . Experts expect a loss of 99 000 jobs outside agriculture , and not even half as many new jobs in the private sector. The chances of recovery would thus disappear definitively. Fewer jobs mean that American households spend less money. And just from private consumption depends on the economy in the United States to 70 percent.
For the stock exchanges that would be fatal. Because of the financial markets , the fight is raging between bulls and bears are currently particularly hard. The intermediate results at the beginning of that exchange : Week undecided. "The investment in equipment and consumption are in due time come into play? Or they come too late to avoid a relapse into crisis ? " asks Commerzbank Jörg Krämer , chief economist in its latest analysis and avoids a clear answer.
The stock markets have reached , in fact, at a crucial point. The Dax has lost over the last three weeks almost exactly 400 points. Conservative asset managers such as the Swiss bank Sarasin think no more about it , to win as much as possible , but they do everything to lose as little as possible , " capital preservation enjoy our top priority, " reads the slogan on their current strategy report.
There are seven plagues that currently preoccupy investors : the fear of another economic crash in the U.S. while the possibility of a collapse in the Chinese real estate market , a rapid inflation in the U.S. and Europe or , just as bad , deflation and a further flood of liquidity due to cheap money by central banks , government failures and , finally, the suspicion about what actually lies dormant in bank balance sheets. This seven-time uncertainty is paralyzing investors. Many sell their stocks and switch to secure loans.
Investors in the U.S. again put on a nerve-racking weeks on Wall Street. By September is also traditionally the weakest month of trading . There are also economic concerns again, and again make available to the calendar data from the labor market, utilization of industrial and service sectors. Should this be worse than already expected, it could go with the courses significantly downhill. Some analysts fear even, that the key index, the S & P 500, an important support brand breaks down.
The Fed is preparing for this background prior to a new emergency. When push comes to shove, they want the stalled economy in the United States with new cash infusions, a helping hand . The Federal Reserve would then take further steps to support the economy, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Friday. Even a resumption of buying of Treasury bonds and other securities is possible. "We are ready to provide additional support through unconventional measures, especially when the economic outlook should deteriorate significantly. "
Europe is not an island of the blessed more. The boom is losing momentum. Economic development is expected to moderate somewhat in the future , says Bernanke’s German colleague Axel Weber , president of the Bundesbank. "The third and fourth quarter will be weaker than the second. " But the recovery remains intact, he added. Others are more pessimistic than the top German economist. " For me there is no doubt that the risk of a relapse into recession is now greater than the inflation risk, "said Jacques Cailloux , chief economist for Europe Royal Bank of Scotland.
In particular, the news from the U.S. sounds anything but rosy: Gross domestic product (GDP ) increased from April to June with a projected annualized rate of only 1.6 percent , as announced by the Commerce Department revised figures . In an initial estimate of 2.4 percent and a far more higher growth had been expected. But even that happens , the official statisticians had miscalculated and estimated the trade deficit is too low. The loss proved now as a thick pad for growth. The U.S. economy is growing more since the summer of 2009.
But above all, the persistently high unemployment and problems in the housing market make the biggest economy in the world to be created . " The most likely course of the economy is a continuation of a moderate recovery, " expected of the Vice Chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF ), John Lipsky . He adds, however : " The emphasis is on moderate. "
Many ways to support the economy no longer has the Fed
Light and shadow are really close to each other : How could the United States of America in the second quarter but increased its exports by 9.1 percent annualized projected . But at the same time , imports went by almost a third. There was such a boost it does not import more from early 1984. The corresponding shortfall in the proposed trade flow through to growth.
The Fed can not the weak cold. The central bank has recently announced plans to invest the money from the maturity of securities purchased again in order to maintain support for the economy. The central bankers have had so far only outgoing government bonds replaced by new purchases, this is not done in other papers. Thus, the extent of economic support was gradually decreased. Many alternatives to this relatively small step – Fed chief Bernanke has not .
The Fed has been going on for the now three years financial and economic crisis cut its key interest rate to near zero percent and tries with huge cash infusions , the economy and financial system from complete collapse to preserve. Among other things she had bought for 300 billion dollars U.S. Treasury bonds and more than one trillion U.S. dollars other securities such as bonds and real estate- mortgage financier of the state papers taken in their balance sheet. Nevertheless, among other things, the housing market – triggered the crisis in 2007 – one of the Achilles heels of the U.S. economy.
What can go wrong and what would this mean for investors, talk about it in Germany for some independent asset managers who not act to take on corporate interests . After a Handelsblatt survey among market variables can be their opinion so get to the point : The indebtedness problems in the U.S. are so large that they will tear the Western economies back down.
Fund managers warn of the consequences of high debt in the U.S.
To the skeptics among the well-known money managers in the industry Hendrik liver. " In the U.S., the economic picture worsened dramatically , "he says . The consequences will be felt in his opinion around the globe. This is bad news for the export champion Germany. That is why Leber Dax Forecast : 5400 points – from today’s perspective , a crash by about 550 points .
Many pessimists and optimists contend that is a couple of the sovereignty in the economic analysis. Concentrated messages that are contradictory in part , are poison for the markets. " If a lot of information and events come together and the complexity is too high, then dominated the psychology , "said Rüdiger von Nitzsch , a finance professor at the Rheinisch -Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen.
And if we are to believe the variety of market commentary, market letters and newsletters , which are circulating these days, then in addition to the economic risks of the press and historical considerations stockbrokers mind again . The month of September was already a weak stock market tends to month, but the signs are increasingly gloomy , according to a stock market blog. Also viewed chartist point out that the September stands out clearly negative. In view of the past three decades is by far the weakest of the September stock market month. This applies to the German market as well as the U.S. stock exchanges. Not everyone believes in those rules. But unfold in an environment in which there is fear, such statistics have effect. The signs are that on red
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