Monthly Archives: August 2010

Pessimists have the upper hand

Ein sorgenvoller Blick: Was kommt da aus den USA? Quelle: dpa

An anxious glance : What comes from the USA? Source: AP

HB FRANKFURT. The Dax lost 0.4 percent until the afternoon to 5925 meters. On Friday, the view was further cash infusions for the U.S. economy by the Fed nor the German blue-chip index moved into positive . " keep positive momentum was not long in the market because the doubts about the recovery of the global economy are simply too great, " said one dealer.

Also in July, rising consumer spending in the U.S. could not drive out the worries of many investors . "This was not a setback , but it is also not a big step forward, " said one analyst. Spending rose by 0.4 percent, slightly faster than expected by analysts . The financial markets follow the development of consumption in the world’s largest economy precisely because it accounts for two thirds of U.S. economic output.

" seen Charttechnisch we are in a critical situation, " said one market players . The leading index still struggling with the 200- day moving average at around 5957 meters. "The more he fails at that mark , the more gloomy the prospects are . " Top of the benchmark index, but only a little air, he said. In 6060 , he points to meet strong resistance.

Because of a holiday in the UK , sales were thin. In the first two trading hours Dax shares changed to the value of just € 270 million to the owners – a third less than at the same time on Friday.

The German stock market , the shares of Eon and RWE were an increase of about one and 0.2 percent for the leadership group in Dax. Investors took it with relief, that Chancellor Angela Merkel for an extension of the nuclear power plant at times had up to 15 years pronounced . "This seems to be better than that priced in the courses in word -case scenario of higher taxes and lower life extension , "said one market players . Overall, revenue was due to a holiday in the UK but quite thin.

On the losing side were the shares of Infineon, after the chip maker had announced on the morning of the sale of its mobile division for 1.4 billion U.S. dollars to Intel. "The positive effects of this transaction have already been priced in , "said market analyst Heino Ruland Ruland of Research. "The sale was even rumored for months. "Infineon listed after initial gains 1.6 percent weaker at 4.53 euros.

it focused on the sales list to week beginning the next value : MAN, Volkswagen and BMW lost 1.3 to 1.9 percent. " in particular, are cyclical stocks of the U.S. economy very dependent and are under pressure, " said one dealer. Daimler ‘s shares traded 0.8 percent negative. Stockbrokers made this even a report in Handelsblatt responsible , according to a major shareholder of Abu Dhabi for the time being no need for a seat on the board . A Daimler spokesman declined to comment on that. " Investors naturally wonder what is behind it and are confused , "said a dealer.

In the technology index TecDAX , investors rushed to Smartrac on Monday after the financial investor One Equity Partners ( OEP ) , following a takeover bid 20 euros per Smartrac paper had commanded . The shares of the wireless chip manufacturer then shot in the head by 17.6 percent to 20.10 euros and were up to as expensive than it has been over two years. " Good news for shareholders, " said DZ Bank analyst Harald Schnitzer. "The purchase price is quite high and a good opportunity to sell the stock at a high price. "

were also asked in the Small Cap index MDAX -listed title of Tui, the goods rose by 5.6 percent to about eight euros . Analysts welcomed the announcement that Russia’s major shareholder Alexei Mordashov increase its share of the travel group to over 25 percent will. This arose from a memorandum from the Austrian Cartel , where Mordashov had registered the project on Friday. On the stock market , many investors now speculating on a takeover bid Mordaschows for the Group. But sources said the Russians have no such plans .

Why do top managers stock up now with shares

Vorstandschef Michael Dieckmann hat Allianz-Aktien gekauft. Quelle: dpa

CEO Michael Dieckmann has bought Alliance shares. Source: AP

FRANKFURT. Allianz CEO Michael Dieckmann does, and the environment of the Merckle family also can be across all industries, many top managers do not irritated by the recent market setbacks, but use the low-cost entry . You have in the past two weeks bought shares of their company , taken as the direction of their prices down. Because they are convinced that their company will continue to write good numbers. And because they believe that the price of this after the recent losses not reflected adequately.

" This should be limited , generally speaking, the more potential setback in the stock market , "says Simon Böling the Research Institute of Asset Management. evaluates his house every two weeks from the insider orders that the companies have to report to the Securities and Exchange Commission Bafin . The insider barometer, from which it jointly with Commerzbank Wealth Management calculates , has fallen since the previous survey at four points to 137 points. That is, the insiders remain optimistic regarding the future development of the stock market. This section starts with 110 points .

Does the Dax below 6000 points, the managers buy back

Generally is made in Germany continued the trend , already recognized throughout the year : the commute Dax as the supreme measure of the situation in the stock market towards 6300 points separate , the manager of stocks. Does he like in the past few days again below 6000 points , get them back on.

Yen-action spurred the markets

TOKYO. Japan speeds up the fight against the strength of the yen. Naoto Kan Premier announced today that he would be in the afternoon Federal Reserve Chairman Masaaki Shirakawa meet for talks. Previously, the Bank of Japan had held an unscheduled emergency meeting. In this emergency meeting, the men decided to Shirakawa, the banks in the country to make more money. The existing program should be increased only to 30 trillion yen (275.5 billion euros) from 20 trillion yen. More aggressive steps to keep himself in the event that there are clearer signs of an economic slowdown, the central bankers. The prime rate remained unchanged as expected at record-low 0.1 percent.
Kan also said in Tokyo that he would sit down with a ministerial committee to advise on monetary policy and wirtschaftsstimmulierende measures. Maybe the government will present today to both plans for an intervention in the foreign exchange markets, and an economic recovery plan.
The yen rose slightly after the Fed announcement, but remained throughout the day to the dollar negative. The Nikkei gave part of his previous winnings again. On the morning the stock market in Tokyo had reflected the high expectations of the planned measures. Since the agreed increase in liquidity for the banking sector came as no surprise, however, the gains melted away in the course of trading again. In the end, the Nikkei index of 225 leading values a gain of 158.20 points or 1.76 percent recorded at a level of 9149.26 points. The broader Topix rose 9.59 points, or 1.17 percent, and went with a closing level of 829.21 meters from the market.
The euro was quoted in the afternoon for the 108.55-58 yen higher at 107.74-78 yen after yen late Friday. To the dollar, the euro stood at 1.2735 to 38 dollars after 1.2727 to 29 U.S. dollars on Friday. The dollar was quoted at 85.24-25 yen in yen to 84.65-66 yen on Friday.
In a first reaction Andy Ji spoke of the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore by a half-hearted approach of the Federal Reserve. "Nothing has changed fundamentally," he said. The BOJ continued to resist pressure from the government.
So far, it was talk that such press statements made until tomorrow, Tuesday. According to Japanese media is to make the recovery plan including public funds available so that local companies can build additional factories in economically eligible industries. Among them are particularly energy-saving products such as lithium-ion batteries, such as electric cars, how to understand solar cells.
The government apparently wants to make sure the emergency reserve in the 2010 budget of 920 billion yen and loose 800 billion yen in net profit for the financial year 2009.
The export-dependent Japan is beginning to feel the strong yen. The strengthening against the dollar to its highest level in 15 years and the euro to its highest level in nine years Japan’s export-dependent economy slows more.

The fears of the seven markets

Händler an der Frankfurter Börse: Sieben Plagen für die Investoren Quelle: dpa

Trader on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: Seven plagues for investors Source : dpa

DÜSSELDORF. The first and last day of this week will see the truth. The U.S. statisticians publish figures on Monday for U.S. consumption , then on Friday its employment data for August . Experts expect a loss of 99 000 jobs outside agriculture , and not even half as many new jobs in the private sector. The chances of recovery would thus disappear definitively. Fewer jobs mean that American households spend less money. And just from private consumption depends on the economy in the United States to 70 percent.

For the stock exchanges that would be fatal. Because of the financial markets , the fight is raging between bulls and bears are currently particularly hard. The intermediate results at the beginning of that exchange : Week undecided. "The investment in equipment and consumption are in due time come into play? Or they come too late to avoid a relapse into crisis ? " asks Commerzbank Jörg Krämer , chief economist in its latest analysis and avoids a clear answer.

The stock markets have reached , in fact, at a crucial point. The Dax has lost over the last three weeks almost exactly 400 points. Conservative asset managers such as the Swiss bank Sarasin think no more about it , to win as much as possible , but they do everything to lose as little as possible , " capital preservation enjoy our top priority, " reads the slogan on their current strategy report.

There are seven plagues that currently preoccupy investors : the fear of another economic crash in the U.S. while the possibility of a collapse in the Chinese real estate market , a rapid inflation in the U.S. and Europe or , just as bad , deflation and a further flood of liquidity due to cheap money by central banks , government failures and , finally, the suspicion about what actually lies dormant in bank balance sheets. This seven-time uncertainty is paralyzing investors. Many sell their stocks and switch to secure loans.

Investors in the U.S. again put on a nerve-racking weeks on Wall Street. By September is also traditionally the weakest month of trading . There are also economic concerns again, and again make available to the calendar data from the labor market, utilization of industrial and service sectors. Should this be worse than already expected, it could go with the courses significantly downhill. Some analysts fear even, that the key index, the S & P 500, an important support brand breaks down.

The Fed is preparing for this background prior to a new emergency. When push comes to shove, they want the stalled economy in the United States with new cash infusions, a helping hand . The Federal Reserve would then take further steps to support the economy, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Friday. Even a resumption of buying of Treasury bonds and other securities is possible. "We are ready to provide additional support through unconventional measures, especially when the economic outlook should deteriorate significantly. "

Europe is not an island of the blessed more. The boom is losing momentum. Economic development is expected to moderate somewhat in the future , says Bernanke’s German colleague Axel Weber , president of the Bundesbank. "The third and fourth quarter will be weaker than the second. " But the recovery remains intact, he added. Others are more pessimistic than the top German economist. " For me there is no doubt that the risk of a relapse into recession is now greater than the inflation risk, "said Jacques Cailloux , chief economist for Europe Royal Bank of Scotland.

In particular, the news from the U.S. sounds anything but rosy: Gross domestic product (GDP ) increased from April to June with a projected annualized rate of only 1.6 percent , as announced by the Commerce Department revised figures . In an initial estimate of 2.4 percent and a far more higher growth had been expected. But even that happens , the official statisticians had miscalculated and estimated the trade deficit is too low. The loss proved now as a thick pad for growth. The U.S. economy is growing more since the summer of 2009.

But above all, the persistently high unemployment and problems in the housing market make the biggest economy in the world to be created . " The most likely course of the economy is a continuation of a moderate recovery, " expected of the Vice Chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF ), John Lipsky . He adds, however : " The emphasis is on moderate. "

Many ways to support the economy no longer has the Fed

Light and shadow are really close to each other : How could the United States of America in the second quarter but increased its exports by 9.1 percent annualized projected . But at the same time , imports went by almost a third. There was such a boost it does not import more from early 1984. The corresponding shortfall in the proposed trade flow through to growth.

The Fed can not the weak cold. The central bank has recently announced plans to invest the money from the maturity of securities purchased again in order to maintain support for the economy. The central bankers have had so far only outgoing government bonds replaced by new purchases, this is not done in other papers. Thus, the extent of economic support was gradually decreased. Many alternatives to this relatively small step – Fed chief Bernanke has not .

The Fed has been going on for the now three years financial and economic crisis cut its key interest rate to near zero percent and tries with huge cash infusions , the economy and financial system from complete collapse to preserve. Among other things she had bought for 300 billion dollars U.S. Treasury bonds and more than one trillion U.S. dollars other securities such as bonds and real estate- mortgage financier of the state papers taken in their balance sheet. Nevertheless, among other things, the housing market – triggered the crisis in 2007 – one of the Achilles heels of the U.S. economy.

What can go wrong and what would this mean for investors, talk about it in Germany for some independent asset managers who not act to take on corporate interests . After a Handelsblatt survey among market variables can be their opinion so get to the point : The indebtedness problems in the U.S. are so large that they will tear the Western economies back down.

Fund managers warn of the consequences of high debt in the U.S.

To the skeptics among the well-known money managers in the industry Hendrik liver. " In the U.S., the economic picture worsened dramatically , "he says . The consequences will be felt in his opinion around the globe. This is bad news for the export champion Germany. That is why Leber Dax Forecast : 5400 points – from today’s perspective , a crash by about 550 points .

Many pessimists and optimists contend that is a couple of the sovereignty in the economic analysis. Concentrated messages that are contradictory in part , are poison for the markets. " If a lot of information and events come together and the complexity is too high, then dominated the psychology , "said Rüdiger von Nitzsch , a finance professor at the Rheinisch -Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen.

And if we are to believe the variety of market commentary, market letters and newsletters , which are circulating these days, then in addition to the economic risks of the press and historical considerations stockbrokers mind again . The month of September was already a weak stock market tends to month, but the signs are increasingly gloomy , according to a stock market blog. Also viewed chartist point out that the September stands out clearly negative. In view of the past three decades is by far the weakest of the September stock market month. This applies to the German market as well as the U.S. stock exchanges. Not everyone believes in those rules. But unfold in an environment in which there is fear, such statistics have effect. The signs are that on red

noh / hac / pan / ina / oli

EUREX / DAX -Futures – start performed well 6.000er brand in sight

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones ) – are well maintained , the DAX futures on Monday started in the trade.

The September contract increased by 8.14 clock by 6 points to 5986 . The day’s high is so far in 5987 and the day’s low at 5975.5 points. Implemented so far have been about 2,400 contracts. Thus the FDAX the gains of the late rally on Friday defended . Dealers expect the 6.000er brand is tested throughout the day. However, it also places a strong resistance area dar. a conclusion about this brand is therefore unlikely. Moreover, because of lack of closed exchange in London, the major traders in the UK. Strong support at 5950 points seen.

DJG / mod / cln / ISJ