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Bad times for commodity investors

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Die Öl-Katastrophe der vergangenen Wochen drückt auf die Kurse von Rohstoffwerten. Quelle: ap

The oil disaster in recent weeks expressed on the prices of raw material values. Source: AP

FRANKFURT / CANBERRA. The otherwise so spoiled commodity values fall into problems: Several put bad news – especially the oil spill from the USA – the previously so immaculate reputation of oil companies and mining companies ugly scratches. And despite the really good sign. Commodity prices move because of the unexpectedly good economic forecasts continued, the price of oil has left the margin of 70-80 dollars per barrel (159 liters), in which he has moved since last summer, probably for good. He now takes the mark of $ 90 in attack.

The focus now are the oil company BP and the mining companies BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Rio Tinto. The BPBroke a share yesterday to up to ten percent. Overall, the BPShare price since the outbreak of the oil disaster lost more than 20 percent in value. The damages that could threaten the group for the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico to quantify, analysts at sizes between five and 14 billion dollars.

The most asked question is therefore at the moment, whether the compensation is now priced into the lower classes. Many Optimist called the losses already excessive. Brain Gallagher, analyst at Dolmen Stockbrockers says, BP have already lost twice as much to be market value as the expected loss is likely.

Moderate upside

But regardless of the current disaster, the times for oil stocks are worse. The profits in the first quarter have risen so high that many analysts see hardly increase opportunities. Both the papers of Repsol and the Total has Sven Diermeier, an analyst with Independent Research hold on "" decrease it. Both he certifies only moderate upside potential.

Not much better it looks in the long highly regarded shares of mining companies. They came yesterday with a new commodity dues under massive pressure, which would apply from 2012 in Australia. Across the industry were punished mine values, whether they break down in Australia much or little. BHP Billiton, Xstrata, Rio Tinto were among the biggest losers. The Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said the resource companies that profit for years of a historic bull market demand should continue to pay a higher premium for being allowed to exploit the "resources of all Australians."

So far, mining companies have returned to a low share of their record profits to the people. In the past ten years the profits of Australian commodity groups, thanks to the resources boom to a total of 80 billion Australian dollar had climbed. The license fees to the individual states, but were increased by only nine billion Australian dollars.

Industry reacted negatively

The new levy to the government will only be levied on profits when the cost of exploration and mining are deducted. Profitable projects would be taxed more heavily than those that have a lower profit margin. In return, the companies could deduct royalties to the previous state to avoid double taxation. Australia expects from the new tax for the financial year 2013/14 revenue of nine billion Australian dollars. Much of the money is to be in the pensions and investment from the construction of infrastructure facilities.

The negative reaction of the raw materials industry had been expected. It is hardly entitled. The industry will continue to benefit from generous tax deductions for costs incurred in searching and developing new fields. It also benefits directly from infrastructure such as roads and rails, which are largely financed by the public sector. Analysts were largely in agreement that the new levy would only marginally affect the profits – if any.