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Brazil’s boom raises fear of overheating


Für Brasiliens Wirtschaft geht es momentan stark aufwärts. Experten warnen allerdings vor Überhitzung. Quelle: Reuters

For Brazil’s economy is currently strong upward. But experts warn against overheating. Source: Reuters

HB DÜSSELDORF. Compared with the first three months of 2009 economic output was higher by as much as nine percent. Thus Brazil is within the so-called BRIC group of emerging leaders significantly more than Russia, and grew a bit stronger than India. China is, with GDP growth well ahead of almost twelve percent.

Since the beginning of the government and economists revised their forecasts for the Brazilian economic growth increased several times. Now is probably followed by another wave of upward revisions. In its Budget, the government went from 5.5 percent growth, analysts said in the recent survey by the Central Bank ahead 6.6 percent, but some experts are already up 7.5 percent.

However, the failure rate at the end – the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates continues to grow. Even the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, warned recently that Brazil threatened to overheat. The country not only benefited from booming commodity exports, but also increasingly by a strong internal market. The latest data show that the industry is investing heavily to meet the domestic demand.

This evening, the Central Bank advises rotating over the prime rate, which they had last raised in April by 75 basis points to 9.5 percent. Most analysts polled by Reuters expect a further such step then 10.25 percent. The end of the rate increase phase they see achieved at 11.75 percent. In its decision, the central bankers will have available the latest inflation data. Economists expected last with an average inflation rate of 5.6 percent for 2010. Reuters / dih