FRANKFURT (Dow Jones) – The news low- time on the German stock market is slowly approaching its end. From the U.S. , the first Companies for the third quarter reported and the number is in the coming days and weeks to rise. (Photo : Anders)
So far there are only Indications : How could Oracle and Nike with better than expected Numbers come up , however, disappointed , AMD and Adobe with its Statements.
The question is to what extent the weakening of the U.S. economy in already figures or in the views of Companies will be reflected . After the worries about a relapse have subsided in the recession last toss the recent Statements of the U.S. central bank , investors once again in an emotional roller coaster Feelings. For the hope of new liquidity by the printing press contrasts sharply with the admission that in the U.S. economy is not working right .
is expected Of special interest in this context, the Announcement of the ISM index for manufacturing industry at the upcoming Friday meetings . The consensus is to slow in September 55 expected by 56.3 points. For the index , however, would continue record well above the expansion threshold of 50. On Tuesday and Thursday , data on consumer confidence or the Chicago Purchasing Managers index already new clues about the state of U.S. economy deliver .
Whether the economy will back fall into recession or not even these data series is not a final answer . Clear seems , however, that the U.S. economy does not grow sufficiently to the ailing labor market and the all-important consumer sustainably . support An increasing number of observers therefore sees no Alternative to a renewed expansion of money or Quantitative Easing 2 ( QE2 ), the question seems only when and to what extent Government securities are bought .
The commercial pressure on the Federal Reserve should also therefore to rise as the U.S. government in the face of domestic political opposition hardly in a position to a sufficiently wide Recovery Plan hang up, to stimulate the economy stronger. To what extent does this in the face of a zero interest rate environment on QE2 may be for the Fed new territory .
The German bank says in this context of a Geldpoltik in the experimental stage. Japan is a least Warning dar.
The effects of QE2 could the big issue for the , Stock markets in the coming year . With a view to soon commencing Quarterly season is likely in particular the development of the banking sector interesting be . After a very volatile market development Financial markets over the summer, few analysts, including Meredith Whitney warned that the consensus forecasts in the banking sector too high were . The weak figures from Jeffreys can listen up.
While now other analysts are likely eager to be employed to adjust their estimates downward. The Correction required could be enormous . The strategist of Deutsche Bank , Jim Reid , points out that the consensus at Goldman for the third Quarter with earnings per share is calculated of 3.13 USD, Morgan Stanley at 0.53 USD. The German bank charged but only with earnings per share of $ 1.95 or 0.15 USD.
The question now is whether we will be able to analysts , the Estimates to screw in time down or face to adversity the markets. Whatever the case , an outperformance of the banking sector in the coming weeks not to expect . But without the Support the industry it would the overall market be difficult for , according to up break . All in all, suggests a continuation of the Sideways movement in the DAX between 5700 and about 6400 points on .
-By Manuel Priego Thimmel , Dow Jones Newswires, +49 ( 0) 69 – 29725-223 , manuel.priego – Thimmel @ dowjones.com
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