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Economists wage plus fuel debate

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HB FRANKFURT / MAIN. Economists underpin the reputation of the policy for higher wages. The chief economist of the state bank KfW Group, Norbert deer, stated on Tuesday in Frankfurt: "This starts the domestic economy would be a bargaining round with average wage increases of three percent is required."

After conviction of economic experts speak at Commerzbank in Germany and the expected further decline in the unemployment rate for a wage increase. Jörg Krämer, chief economist forecast for 2011 less than three million unemployed in Germany. The unemployment rate falling – contrary to the trend in the euro area – from 7.7 percent this year to 7.2 percent. This will affect the wages, said Kramer, "The big factor that drives wages, the unemployment rate."

Since leaving the majority of collective agreements until the end of 2011, many workers, the rise in salaries but only a year feel later – but true: "We think the wage inflation in Germany will increase significantly from 2012," said Commerzbank analyst Ralph Solveen.

Most recently, the social partners had in the steel industry in North Rhine-Westphalia agreed to 3.6 percent in wages and salaries for employees. Thereupon Minister Rainer Brüderle (FDP) for higher wages in Germany had said: "If the economy is booming, and strong wage increases are possible." The conclusion in the steel industry have shown that a fair balance is possible, which could perhaps focus on other industries.

The move brought fierce criticism Brüderle a while. Unions, employers and the opposition had accused him, he’ll do it with popular demands for a swig from the bottle to pay simple. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) has reinforced the minister, however the back.

The strong second quarter of 2010, private consumption was slightly contributed to the upturn, the locomotive for growth of 2.2 percent over the previous quarter, but the exports. Germany will be reminded again and again to boost domestic demand, because our country has too much growing at the expense of others.

From the perspective of Commerzbank of Germany has already a lot of scope for wage increases. Finally, unit labor costs have increased since the turn of the millennium in the southern countries € 30 to 40 percent, while they had hardly risen in Germany. Thus, Germany had developed a strong competitive advantage and stay in the long term in the fast lane.

The gap in the euro area forced the Southern states actually to wage restraint in order to compete against Germany make up ground. The large gap between Germany and highly indebted countries such as Spain, Greece and Ireland would thereby shrinking, gradually – would be noticeable but do it in a few years.

Commerzbank expects this year for the Federal Republic with an economic growth of 3.3 percent. For 2011, partly because they represent the outgoing fiscal stimulus two per cent in view, Kramer said, "The dip in growth in Germany is accustomed to success is a luxury problem."