Under pressure: Above all, the attractive price of the U.S. dollar charged to the gold price. Source: Reuters
DUSSELDORF. It is not so long ago that the price of gold had only the forward pass. Until December last year, a record chased the others. Gold finally reached the peak at 1 226 U.S. dollars per troy ounce (31.1 grams). Since then, however, is significantly down. But last week, has reduced the precious metal within a few days to more than $ 60 to temporarily only $ 1050. So little gold has recently tasted three months ago. Experts do not rule out that the price could still remain under pressure.
Above all, the attractive price of U.S. currency the gold price currently charged. "The correlation is of gold and the dollar is currently on the market played a very strong," says Thorsten Proettel, precious metals expert at Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg (LBBW). This had a somewhat paradoxical situation arise. For the current dollar strength is actually a weakness of the euro, caused by concerns about Greece. The role as a "safe haven" in uncertain times, the gold is awarded again, however, do not come into play, the LBBW expert. The precious metal, and the U.S. currency often evolve in opposite directions, as institutional investors use gold as a hedge against losses in the dollar zone.
At $ 250 started in 2001, the good trend. Its status as a "safe harbor" has now lost, but the precious metal. On the contrary, investors flee from risky assets like stocks, then gold. The reason is that more and more speculative investors see gold as an investment.
Have "speculative financial investors appear to after breaking the psychologically important mark of $ 1100 Long-closed positions," it says in the Commerzbank. The investors in exchange traded funds (ETFs), exchange-traded funds, gold being returned to the back. The gold holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust had recently fallen by a further six tonnes to its lowest level since October. "The physical demand should wear at the lower price level, but again, to further losses are likely to be slowed down," believe CommerzbankExperts.
On the further development of the gold market are the experts, however, not quite agree. The strength of the U.S. currency is used by according to estimates by analyst Dan Smith Standard Chartered commodity prices in the coming days incrimination. The next mark at the price of gold on which to watch out for is that in his opinion at $ 1020, reports the Reuters news agency.
Development of the gold price (in dollars).
Thorsten Proettel looks especially on the other hand, the mark of $ 1030 – this was the all time high, until the gold price in late October last year was shot straight upwards. The increase peaked at the record high of $ 1226.10 in early December. Since then, the cost per ounce from 1100 to 1150 dollars. "The support holds at $ 1030," believes the LBBW expert. At the end he sees the precious metal back to even $ 1250 per troy ounce.
Positive chartists think the opportunities in the commodities markets. Unanimous tenor: The gold price continued to climb, because the present course in a perfect uptrend. ) Under the motto of the simplest technical analysis, "the trend is your friend" (free: Follow the trend, investors should consider gold as long as the fidelity to tilt the trend. The chartists evaluate the recent correction of more than $ 100 as long overdue. In previously rising prices, without any interim correction, the market had been completely overheated.
The gold chart experts see the trend only in danger if the precious metal should slip below values between 1 050 and 1 020 dollars per ounce. For a long time, this seemed unlikely. But following the recent weakness in the financial markets, which did not spare even gold, is reaching the danger zone.
After gold had risen in early December 2009 to to 1 $ 221.70, rapidly corrected the precious metal for several weeks. Gold has long been his reputation as a "safe harbor" lost. "Offer investors this year hardly any investment alternatives", founded by Klaus Deppermann BHF Bank’s optimism. "The Übertreibungsphase the gold is only at the top yet." In the second half, he sees the price rise vigorously and expects rates of up to 1 $ 800 next spring. Wieland Staud, director of Staud Research expects a minimum of 1 400 dollars, an average of 1 750 dollars. Christian Henke, technical analyst at WestLB, identifies as a target 1 500 dollars.