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Exchange 2.0 trembles before the financial crisis

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Ausblick: Sorgen um Griechenland belasten weiter die Börse. 
Quelle: Handelsblatt

Outlook: Greece worries about further burdening the stock market. Source: Handelsblatt

HB FRANKFURT. The investors are anxious to play the scenario financial crisis 2.0. Triggered by the banks are now the States. But Greece would be a bust in the balance sheets of banks, tearing huge holes again. The country has around 300 billion euros in debt to foreign institutions – more than twice as much as the U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, when it became insolvent. The consequences are known. On the floor now comes mainly from within the uncertainty is not good. That was the worst, says Wolfgang Duwe, equity strategist at Bremer Landesbank.

The current stock charts prove him right. Last week the stock prices rose immediately when it became apparent support of Greece’s European partners. Market participants placed their hopes for EU assistance. While the Euro-countries pledged their support to preserve the stability of the euro, but the results of the Brussels summit talks on Wednesday disappointed the broker. There were no concrete decisions on possible assistance, so that investors were nervous again.

Next week, there is now a new opportunity to dispel uncertainty. Investors anxiously await the meeting of the Eurogroup of finance ministers on Monday and the meeting of EU finance ministers (Ecofin) on Tuesday. They are hoping for clues as to how it continues for now with Greece. The agency, however, Reuters quoted government sources on Friday from the EU that would be taken at the Ecofin meeting hardly any concrete decisions on grants.

If they win but EU aid for the battered country on the Mediterranean could shape the movement to the Dax, analysts said. "If something would be decided on concrete, the market is facilitated. Then there could be a small relief rally," predicts Landesbank expert Duwe. The bottom line, however, he remains for the next few weeks, rather skeptical. "Investors seem a bit chipped, because even though the reporting season on the whole went well, are the prices went down." The Dax could be moving in the direction of the 5 000-point mark.

With his skepticism Duwe is not alone. The analysts of Landesbank Berlin (LBB) advise investors to be cautious: "An end to the ongoing consolidation movement since mid-January to the Euro-markets not yet in sight." Several indicators point in the same direction. Thus, for example, is likely to reflect the growing nervousness of investors in a rising volatility in share prices.

Charles Huber, a fund manager at Pioneer Investments, itself estimates at an overall view initially quite optimistic with strong winds for investors: "We are in an economic transition, from a stimulated economic growth towards a self-sustaining recovery. After the severe recession must be on both the economy level count as well as the stock market with higher volatility, "says Huber.

Finally, information about investor behavior show a rather depressed mood. Exclude from the analysis of the insider buying German Stock Exchange attributable to increased investor caution. The analysts and statisticians regularly examine the stock purchases and sales of European executives and board members of listed companies and their families – that of investors who are close to it on economic activity. "The insiders are more cautious in this January than last, and buy only slightly more than they" told to sell the stock with recently.

"The markets continue to remain extremely nervous," observed Arnim E. cog of the Stuttgart bank Ellwanger & Geiger, of a "clean out" mentality finds. Chart-this leads to the fact that the indices have been tested again and again new support levels, then build on this a backlash. For Dax Cog defines a line at 5 400 points, then in the next 5 250 points. Cog looks upward again until the air when crossing the line of 5 580 points. Then the way would be free 5 800 points in the direction.

Such scenarios include the optimists in the current environment is not enough. "The global economy should grow significantly again in 2010," write the certificates of experts at WestLB in their outlook "Germany Monitor. Especially in the emerging markets, the economy get going. Of which could also benefit in Germany, companies with high export ratio.

German shares are long by European standards are among the winners, also said Pioneer expert Huber: "The country gains a factor in the light of negative developments in the solid state finances of many euro area countries in importance." In the current situation of Germany was because of its high financial strength across countries very well. "This should be the medium to long term positive impact on German stocks."

Dates of next week

But first, investors have to deal with current issues and events. Since it is still common to quarterly figures. Reported in the new week MAN, Tui (both Saturday), German Stock Exchange (Tuesday) and Daimler (Thursday). The budgets presented so far show the analysts happy. "The results looked reasonable," says Heinz-Gerd Sonnenschein, equity strategist at Postbank. "But the market has been unable to benefit because investors have hoped for more obviously."

Also important economic data could move the market in the new week. On Monday, the U.S. stock markets remain closed for a holiday, on Wednesday the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on the Protocol by the end of January made public. In addition, data on industrial production are disclosed. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed business index for stands, on Friday, the statistics on the development of consumer prices.

In Germany, on Tuesday, the ZEW Indicator of Economic published report. Christoph Weil of the Commerzbank includes failures in the numbers from Germany and Europe is not enough. "The period of positive economic data should first be surprising past."