FRANKFURT (Dow Jones) – German retail sales fell in July , contrary to expectations. The Federal Statistical Office ( Destatis ) on Wednesday announced in a first publication , sales declined compared with last month’s price and seasonally adjusted by 0.3 %. (Photo : Anders)
The economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires , however, had an increase of 0.5 % forecast , which is a continuation of the positive trends would have corresponded to the previous quarters . In June , sales were also down by 0.3 %.
On the private consumption of German consumers currently stand for a few hopes. Until early this year, the consumer was impacted by the expiry of car scrapping , retail sales grew , however moderate. After the second quarter and the recovery in car sales , consumer spending from April to June rose by 0.6 %, contributing even to the growth of gross domestic product (GDP ).
Given the very robust labor market observers had hoped that this trend would continue in the coming months. But the first month of the third quarter begins with a disappointment – although perhaps only at first glance how the history of the previous month, data shows .
That was in April in the first publication that was based on 70 % of revenues , an increase was reported by 1.0 %. It was the presentation of the so-called Messzahlenberichts a decrease of 0.5 %, made the following revisions to minus 0.7 % and finally expanded minus 1.8%. For May , however , first estimates an increase in sales was reported by 0.4%, from within several months of revision Odyssey growth of 3.0 %, 1.6 % and 3.0% was finally back .
No wonder then that the concern of the Bank economists on the little minus in June is obviously limited. " More important than the figures for individual months vary greatly and revisionsanfällig are , is the trend that shows the six-month reliability. Looking at these shows, that the decline has been corrected in July , only the very strong growth in previous months , was For example, Commerzbank economist Simon Junker.
Also for UniCredit economist Alexander Koch rather the generally positive sales trend in recent quarters is in the foreground . " The current data show for the first half of 2010, a rise in core revenues by 1%, while they previously had more to suggest a stagnation , " he said. The upward trend in private consumption had already begun in the autumn of last year , and the car sales were at the beginning of the second half further signs of recovery .
According to the Deutsche Bundesbank , nominal motor vehicle sales rose in July from the previous month by 1.5 %, after they had already gained in the previous month by 2.8 %. Your previous year’s level but still below it by 4.5 % (previous month : minus 7.3%).
By Hans – Bentzien , Dow Jones Newswires , +49 (0 ) 69 29 725 300
Hans.Bentzien @ dowjones.com
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