BERLIN (Dow Jones) – The European Monetary Union , according to a study by the Kiel Institute for World Economics ( Kiel Institute ), responsible for the Greek debt crisis. (Photo : Polya Lesova )
"Through a ‘ debt- Mechanics ‘in the monetary union , the new debt of Greece and some other countries in the euro area in the past decade increased almost inevitable ", the Kiel Institute said on Mittwoch.Eine misjudgment of this mechanism and a short-term clientele politics these states have in the sequence a "Debt trap " resulted , which is continuously increasing in external debt and decreasing international competitiveness.
The mechanism lies in the fact that poorer countries went through with entry into monetary union for a longer period in which they were animated by negative real interest rates on debts , according to the study of the Kiel Institute expert Matthias Baumgarten and Henning Klodt . "If the state is concentrated in consumer loans , they almost inevitably fall into a debt crisis " , said the economists. The main problem in Greece and Portugal would thus be at the level of national debt , but " exaggerated income expectations of citizens , government and labor constantly overstretch ".
Ultimately, those countries that had fallen in this way in debt to free only on their own again. On a fiscal conservative and a wage policy would lead no other way. "If the required primary surplus in the state budget increases to help , either internationally coordinated macro policies or regulations or financial assistance loans of other countries – the only thing that helps firm corrective action in their own country , "said Klodt .
Website: www.ifw- kiel.de
– By Andreas Kissler , Dow Jones Newswires
+49 (0)30 – 2888 4118, andreas.kissler @ dowjones.com
DJG / ank / kth / sh