BERLIN (Dow Jones) – The Federal Association of German Banks (BdB ) has raised its growth forecast for this year to 3.3 %, having previously 2 % had been expected. (Photo : Reuters )
For next year predict , economists the BdB member banks an increase of gross domestic product by 2.0 % as the banking association announced after a meeting of its Committee on Economic and monetary policy on Thursday. There, saw the economists a decline in unemployment to 3.24 million this year and 3.060 in the coming year . Exports are on their expectation in 2010 of 14.4% and 2011 by 7.4 % and imports this year by 13.0 % and next by 6.6 %. The budget deficit climbs to the forecast for the current year to 4.2 % of GDP before in 2011 declining to 3.5 %.
The annual average was in Germany, " an economic growth of ‘3 + x % ‘ already in the books , "said the committee chairman, BHF -Bank ‘s chief economist Uwe Angenendt , at a press conference with the BdB managing director of Economic Affairs, EU policy and international relations , Bernd Brabänder . " It is true , the extraordinary growth not continue can because the catch-up effects disappear in the construction industry and loses the global economy momentum , "she stressed .
But even with a complete stagnation of economic performance in the second half would result in annual average GDP growth of 2.8 %. So far , however, indicated "still all indicators point to continued economic growth in the third and fourth quarter, " even would if now first slowdown signals from the orders and in industrial production . " The economic situation is still positive , but his felt subdued , " concluded Angenendt and Brabänder . The recovery would " continue and carry itself more and more , albeit with a much shallower rise .
The euro area predict , the Bank economists GDP growth of 1.6 % this year and 1.4 % next year and an inflation rate of 1.5 % in 2010 and 1.7 % in 2011. "With the described moderate economic outlook for the euro area , the prices will initially develop only very modest , " said Angenendt and Brabänder . "The fear of rapidly and strong rising inflation , we do not share . " Against an inflation scenario is confirmed by the in the entire euro area still heavily under-utilized production capacity. Serious deflation risks had but also not evident.
The European Central Bank ( ECB) in 2011 to return to the exit path , she predicted . "It is also important because shows historical experience that periods of expansive monetary policy often ends late, and thus tend to ( co-) release of new blisters were "emphasized the economists. An interest rate increase they hold earlier than the middle of next year as likely. From today ‘s perspective would be the rate for the main refinancing operation in late 2011 at 1.5 %.
For the exchange rate of the euro against the U.S. dollar , they see a slight decrease of 1.29 EUR / USD end of this year to 1.25 EUR / USD in 2011. "In the development of the euro – dollar rate, we believe , as in the past few months over the next twelve months, significant variations possible, " they stressed but . The oil price, they expect the end of 2010 at $ 78.60 per barrel and the end of 2011 at $ 85.00 per barrel.
-By Andrew Kißler , Dow Jones Newswires
+49 (0)30 – 2888 4118, andreas.kissler @ dowjones.com
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