BERLIN (Dow Jones) – The Institute for Economic Research Halle ( IWH ) is expecting a much faster recovery of the German economy from the global financial and economic crisis than previously expected . ( Reuters photo 🙂
" In the current year is likely that real gross domestic product (GDP ) increase by 3.5 % next year by 2 %, " says the current economic forecast on Wednesday issued jointly IWH and the Kiel Economics.
Back in August, the IWH a strong upward revision of its own forecast had been promised. "Right now we expect for 2010 at least 3% growth, " Chief Oliver had IWH economic Holtemöller explained. Most recently, the IWH had assumed an increase of 2.1%.
The economic experts believe that economic performance will approach the second half of the year pre-crisis quickly . Although early indicators pointed to a pace for sustained expansion . All in all, remain high economic dynamism . " By the end of next year , gross domestic product is presented here for the forecast in about again to have the same level as before the crisis open , " the researchers expected .
Unemployment will probably fall further , according to forecasts . On average, expect the IWH and the Kiel Economics with 3.236 million unemployed in 2010 and 2.871 million unemployed in the coming year. The number of working age will rise to the assessment of the Institute in 2010 to an average of 40.372 million and in 2011 to 40.692 million people.
The strong labor demand from companies in addition to care of the increasing employment and for increasing incomes of households. The expansionary monetary policy favors because of the relatively low debt of businesses and households in Germany earlier and stronger investment and consumption than in other advanced economies.
Overall, the situation in financial markets has eased somewhat again . Capital market and bank lending rates have fallen low, and therefore in some market segments, even compared to the spring again. The financing conditions for firms and households are currently favorable.
"Together with the expectations of households and businesses that passed through the low point of the crisis and the old growth is achieved again, stimulates investment and consumption are increasing , "explained the researchers. They expect that the private consumption expenditure in 2010 by 0.1 % in 2011 and then increase by 1.3 %. Fixed investment expected in the current year by 5.9 % and next year rise by 3.0 %. The price climate remained moderate. 2010 is expected to increase consumer prices by 1.1 % and 2011 by 1.4 %.
For the forecast period to draw from that the slowing global economic dynamics . That applies both to large industrial countries like the U.S. and for major emerging economies such as China. Therefore, the German exports are expected both in the countries concerned and in those regions that are strongly intertwined with them, lose some momentum back , write the business experts. Added to come that the situation in the euro area will continue to be charged by the fiscal problems of some countries.
The German exports will increase , according to Kiel and IWH Economics in the current year by 14.7 % and in the coming year by 6.8 %. In terms of imports , the increase was 13.5 % in 2010 and 2011 at 7.1 % lie .
The experts expect that the budget deficit of the total budget will probably be in the year 2011 under the 3 % mark of the Stability and Growth Pact. This presupposes , however, that the Federal Government decided consolidation actually transpose . For 2010, the researchers say requires a deficit of 3.6 % and for 2011 from 2.5% of GDP.
Website: www.iwh – halle.de
– By Beate Preuschoff , Dow Jones Newswires
+49 (0)30 – 2888 4122, beate.preuschoff @ dowjones.com
DJG / bep / kth / sh