FRANKFURT (Dow Jones) – The European Central Bank (ECB ) regularly consulted experts have maintained their predictions for economic growth in the euro area and inflation in the current year . ( Reuters photo 🙂
As the on Thursday published Survey of Professional Forecasters (SFP ) for the third quarter shows that experts expect 2010 to remain with an increase in real gross domestic product ( GDP) by 1.1 %. For 2011 , the experts have, however, their expectations from the previous survey, slightly revised downward – to 1.4 % from 1.5% previously . For 2012 , respondents expect that GDP will grow in the euro area by 1.6 %. In the longer term , experts expect a further acceleration in growth to 1.8 %.
Compared to the previous survey round, the forecasters its inflation expectations have not changed : This amounts to the basis of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP ) will continue in 2010 to 1.4 % in 2011 to 1.5 % and for 2012 to 1.7 %. For most experts, the downside risks to the inflation outlook is mainly caused by the low wage growth, which is due to the high unemployment rate. The biggest upside risks to the baseline scenario, many of the participants due to higher import prices called the depreciation of the euro, rising prices for raw materials and oil, and tax increases as a result of fiscal consolidation plans.
In the longer term , experts predict an HICP inflation of 2.0 %, somewhat higher than in the previous survey, then had been given a rate of 1.9 %. The ECB’s price stability is a means by annual inflation of " below but close to 2 %. " The current survey , which was attended by forecasters was 55 , 14 to 19 conducted in July .
DJG / apo / mle / voi