FRANKFURT / MOSCOW (Dow Jones) — Unemployment in the United States is surprisingly decreased at the beginning, although the job losses continued in January. At the same time drew the benchmark revision of the previous year’s data a gloomy picture of the labor market than previously known. (Photo: B. Rude)
Bank economists, however, go nevertheless assume that the stabilization in the labor market continues and a turnaround is only a matter of time.
As the U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday that fell The survey determined to meet at a separate unemployment the expectations of strong and amounted to 9.7% in January. This is the lowest level since August 2009. Interviewed by Dow Jones Newswires Economists had been an increase in the rate for January to 10.1% from 10.0% expected in the previous month. Reason for the decline in the unemployment rate was that the household survey, employment in January has increased.
Data from the U.S. Department of Labor said, however, was the number of persons employed outside agriculture in January 20,000, while economists had expected a stagnation. Has thus Abwärtsdynamik on the U.S. job market slowed significantly: In January 2009 still had to be a job loss of 779,000 to be accepted — the largest monthly decline in employment since the start of the recession in December 2007. Since then, the U.S. economy is now 8.4 million Jobs lost.
The previous year’s data was revised in January, the usual subject. The benchmark revision showed that in 2009 nearly 600,000 Make more than previously reported have been deleted. For the full year 2009 have been reduced, therefore a total of 4.8 million jobs.
The figures for December 2009 were significantly down fixed: The Ministry is now reported a job loss of 150,000, After an initial decrease to 85,000 had been reported. For Previous month, however, showed a better development (revision of previously, plus 64,000 plus 4,000). Thus, in November last Employment growth in the first year since the start of the recession two years recorded.
The January figures, however, by two special factors distorted: How should both the bad weather, the development Put a strain – especially in construction – the other was due the 2010 census more temporary employees hired. Insofar as the employment figures at the beginning should not underlying trend in the U.S. reflect the labor market, said Observers.
Significant decreases were in place in January güterproduzierenden industrial (minus 60,000) and construction (down 75,000) recorded. In the U.S. particularly important Service industry had been inappropriately 40,000 jobs established. In retail, there were 42,000 new jobs and manufacturing sector increased employment by 11,000. In Temporary work, by economists as a leading indicator for the future Trend is considered to have even created 52,000 new jobs.
The decline in the unemployment rate in January, called NordLB economist Bernd staples as a "real positive surprise." By contrast, the ongoing job cuts was unpleasant, he should given the "fuzziness of these figures," but not overstated will. Along with the revisions to previous months to confirm the Picture, that "the burden of the economic crisis for the Labor remains in any case, although not as massive as a few months ago. "overall situation remains at U.S. labor market, but critical.
According to estimates by economist Postbank Thilo Heidrich "have Although the massive revisions to an even darker picture of the labor painted in the past recession, yet are still To recognize signs of stabilization in current. Above all, the Look at the details fall into positive parts, "said Heidrich taking account of increased employment in the service sector, manufacturing and in temporary jobs. With an expansion of the U.S. economy is his estimation in the next few months again expect a modest employment structure.
UniCredit economist Harm Bandholz assumes that the Settings in the course of the census in the U.S. in the coming Months will have a positive impact on the labor report. Between March and May, the Census Bureau is expected around 1 million temporary workers Setting expects the economist. In the private sector is expected to Employment in the first quarter of the year continue to stabilize in the second Quarter was expected a monthly increase in jobs to 50,000.
Economists were particularly pleased about the increase in hourly wages. This laid an average of $ 0.05, or 0.3% to U.S. $ 18.89. Economists had in the run, only an increase of 0.2% expected. The average weekly working time laid to 33.3 Hours from 33.2 hours in the previous month.
"Due to an increase in weekly working hours were the average weekly wages by 0.6% higher than last month, " Economists said the DekaBank. The development of average weekly wage was in terms of income and Household expenditure in the real positive Surprise of the labor market report. Also NordLB economist staples emphasized that the development of income of the employees "a important stabilizing factor for the private consumption "law.
– By Katrin Haertel, Dow Jones Newswires, +49 (0) 69 297 25 300,
konjunktur.de @ dowjones.com
DJG / kth / sch