Exporters keep euro-dollar exchange rate at year-end possible. Source: AP
HB FRANKFURT. Speculation on the possible expansion of the Greek debt problems to other European countries have charged the euro. On Wednesday, builds the common currency from its early losses and falls to a new year low at $ 1.2805. Thus, the euro traded as low as not more since March 2009.
Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke, the euro was given in addition to the concerns before an expansion of Greece-crisis headwind of good U.S. economic data. The U.S. private sector has created new jobs again in April. "This is a positive precursor to the labor report, "said Praefcke. The course is also slip through technical chart Factors have been accelerated.
When I € is "a nice downward trend" established, "said economist Jonathan Cavenagh of Westpac. Rumors of Spain and Portugal were not very helpful.
"The uncertainty in the foreign exchange market, despite the weekend rescue package agreed for Greece is still there," Viola Stork, foreign exchange experts added at Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen. There was still the fear that the crisis could spread to other countries such as Portugal and Spain. This was shown by the still high risk premiums on bonds of these countries. Even rumors repeatedly led to eruptions on the foreign exchange market.
"Positive messages are sent in this environment, under," said Stork. Thus, the rating agency Fitch has left its rating for Spain, with the top rating of "AAA". Last week, still had a Herabstung by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s burden to "AA" the markets. Also economic data play loud Stork little role. Both the good data from the U.S. but also from the euro zone were largely ignored. The Euro price would be borne by the rising risk aversion. The volatility in the foreign exchange market remains high.
A look at the current price charts show that was to be expected at € a sustained break of the uptrend, the experts say the DZ Bank. Now, with prices under $ 1.31, a further decline is expected. Because then auto sales programs of foreign exchange and hedge fund would be triggered, which could accelerate the decline. Then a check of the euro to around $ 1.23 is possible.
Meanwhile, the bond market showed the fears of many market participants, the debt crisis could spread to Portugal, other consequences. The country had on Wednesday given four times as high interest rates for Money market instruments are charged as a few weeks ago. The Bonds with a maturity of six months were an interest rate of 2.955 percent to the market, as the Portuguese Debt Agency announced. This is the highest Level since November 2008. At the beginning of March was the südwesteuropäische country for only 0.739 percent debt.
The spreads on ten-year government bonds Portuguese continued to rise on Wednesday. The rating agency Moody’s announced to the assessment of a possible downgrade to Portugal . Check On the Portuguese stock market was the leading index PSI 20 by 1.8 percent.
In the opinion of WestLB’s chief economist Holger Fahrinkrug is the rescue package, the credibility of EU institutions is possible. "With the now de facto suspension of the Stability Pact is a cornerstone of credibility undermined the monetary union. So far no reason to believe that the core countries should be able to discipline the periphery. "This assumption is now questioned.
The German export association BGA expects Greece because of the crisis with a strong depreciation of the euro. "A parity against the dollar could I imagine by the end even as the markets you know, like to exaggerate," said Association President Anton Boerner. "Stop The pressure on the euro." Parity is a case of one U.S. dollars worth €. Currently costs the single currency with well $ 1.29 is still significantly more so but at their lowest level in a year.
"For exports is a relief," said Boerner. It relies mainly exports to fast-growing emerging economies such as China or Brazil. There, the long time strong euro had affected the German competitiveness. "This brings some relaxation," said Boerner. However verteure the euro weakness and imports, which are paid mostly in dollars. "Inflation risks I did not see before 2011, but significant," said Boerner.
Cause of the decline was the debt crisis in Greece and other euro countries. "The theme is a Greece-ending story," said Boerner. "We are far from having the problem under control.