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The bull plays football, the stock market is lame

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Bulle vor der Börse Johannesburg: Die Aktienkurse sind vor der WM gefallen.

Bull before the Johannesburg Stock Exchange : Stock prices have fallen before the World Cup .

CAPE TOWN . The wait is over, the party can begin ! Yesterday, in the converted for € 350 million stadium in Johannesburg opened the biggest football event in the world – for the first time on African soil. 49 million South Africans have hingefiebert for years for this moment. Finally, the World Cup is still here as the biggest economic hope since the end of apartheid 16 years ago. That now much less visitors than expected , has nevertheless taken care of disillusionment. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange ( JSE ) is reflected in the examples up and down the expectations reflected : With the price barometer in April , with almost 30 000 points, had climbed to its highest level in almost two years and only ten percent below the all-time high of May 2008 was , is the JSE fell by almost ten percent .

Although athletic and politically not all at the Cape about running, the economy has recently hit better than the football team Bafanas that is in the FIFA world rankings now slipped to rank 83 – as deep as never before a World Cup hosts before. The country’s economy grew in the first quarter of 2010 to unexpectedly high 4.6 percent. It is particularly pleasing that all sectors could grow , even the retail trade and the important mining sector , which grew even by a full 15.4 percent . Economists expect that the World Cup at the end of about 0.5 percent could contribute to economic growth in the Cape , which is being appreciated by most experts to around three percent.

Probably in anticipation of the World Cup were 2009 net about 83 billion rand ( 8.7 billion euros ) has flowed to the Cape – to an outflow of 67 billion rand a year earlier. For 2010 is expected mainly because of the relatively high interest rates , another tributary , which holds the local currency edge already at a very high level and increases the cost of raw materials and export of industrial goods significantly. make the relatively high interest rates on the Cape is very attractive for foreign investors , cheap to borrow money in euros or yen and invest because of the higher interest rates in South Africa. Ten-year government bonds currently pay almost nine percent.

South Africa is popular with investors mainly because of its mineral wealth . The country, whose economy ranks at number 24 worldwide , is by far the biggest funders of platinum and chrome – but also in the gold sector is still a heavyweight , even if the country is now behind China , USA and Australia fell back to fourth . Investors who invested their money ten years on the JSE , could expect the value of their investment to date in dollar terms triple.

However, the outlook of the economy according to South African analysts are less rosy than the many studies make the international financial houses for World Cup hosts faith. In particular, the generated Gold Sponsors, whose costs in Rand, have given the massive appreciation of the national currency drawn little benefit from the high price of the yellow metal.

Given the international expansion of many companies that have previously been very focused on South Africa, it is no coincidence that these companies are just the interest of investors. These include the opinion of an experienced broker David Shapiro of Sasfin Securities , the title of the mining houses , Anglo American and BHP Billiton. Beyond the commodity sector , he is one of British American Tobacco ( BAT ), which is cross-listed since 2008 in the Cape , but also the brewer SAB Miller, the most promising titles, because both were among the key players in their industry.

The world’s largest platinum Anglo Platinum and Impala Platinum Sponsors will benefit from increased investment interest in the other hand, the white metal – and the increased price of platinum. In the first division at the Cape but also play the mobile operators MTN, the clear leader in Africa, as well as the petrochemicals giant Sasol , which has in the conversion of coal and gas to fuel an advance in technology and sought after internationally.

From the World Cup in South Africa , moreover, no company would like to benefit greatly as the services conglomerate Bidvest . The logistics will take the World Cup visitors already in the gangway when leaving home, bring their bags to the baggage claim , foreign exchange banknotes in the local currency edge , provide a car and in the course of the tournament to prepare most of the meals. However, now because of the Bidvest has about 50 percent below the revised tourist numbers significantly dampened investor expectations .

Similar reserved the verdict of the experts with regard to the stock market as a whole. Despite the continuing appetite of investors in commodity values should be about , according to Frederick White of the asset manager Sanlam Investment Management (SIM ) for the rest of the year , no major gains on the JSE are more expected. He thinks the market has long been for expensive – and agrees with a number of investment strategists .