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The credit crunch is still to come

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HAMBURG. One person sees it, the other fear them, and the third says that it does not actually exist. The discussion on the impact of the credit squeeze on the German economy is somewhat tricky. Hardly another word was spoken in the past twelve months as often. At panel discussions over the country experts nodded gravely at the camera, if the neighbor raised his forefinger and against the dangers of over-cautious banker warned that would not help the German middle class in crisis, but rather hinder it. For example, a credit crunch, "was the motto is harmful. The banks should take the time to note.

But the greatest of them, the German Bank, Runs the shoe does not. "We have our loans to the German middle of 2007 extended to 2008, and we have extended it from 2008 to 2009," says a spokesman. And indeed, with credit to the Deutsche Bank in this segment was the last date for 41.7 billion euros. That is one billion more than in December 2008, no great improvement, but certainly not the burglary, the phenomenon would allow the ever-present discussion. The German bank spokesman even said: "We see no credit crunch."

Another place, another opinion. Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Institute for Economic Research in Munich, is one of the most prominent credit terminal reminders. He pointed out that German banks have written off since the end of 2007, 69.4 billion euros to financial products – the most notorious because of the toxic securities. These are based on calculations by the International Monetary Fund, but only 40 percent of the expected overall depreciation. Of the 306 billion euros of equity capital, through the end of 2007, the German Institute possessed would vanish, therefore 53 percent.

Have such a devastating negative impact on equity has on the business. For an institution can only lend the loan that it can also hedge.

According to Ifo polls 54 percent of large companies are already complaining about a tightening of credit by banks. For the smaller companies, the amounts are underneath, but also increase their anxieties. A survey by the German Industry and Commerce DIHK less than 20 000 companies showed that represents 26 percent of respondents deteriorating credit conditions. Thus, low scores were measured last 2002nd

Although the negotiations have become more difficult to credit performance of the company, there are actually no fewer loans, but more. 1.35 Bill. Euro were awarded, according to German Bundesbank in the third quarter of 2009 to domestic companies. They are 1.3 percent more than in the prior year period. At any stage 2009, the loans granted were higher than before the crisis.

Nevertheless, the middle class will remain in alarm. From a general credit squeeze one could not speak, said GCIC finance expert Alexandra Böhne. But in some industries, such as car manufacturers, machinery manufacturers and chemical companies, has long dominated finance restrictions, which would now be tightened again. Were particularly affected small and medium enterprises.

This trend is also Sebastian Freitag, who has looked after his Friday & Co. investment bank in the past two years to restructure a lot of cases. "In the middle there is a very severe credit crunch," says Friday. The banks are currently very focused on their own balance sheets and they would rather just clean up completely, before granting new loans. When in doubt, the motto is rather not do anything. Prior to this position Ifo chief warns sense. As soon as the economy and resumed in the company would need money for expansion, the credit crunch would stifle the recovery. Therefore, Germany could not afford it, that downsizing its banks. Such muddling Japan had brewed 20 years of stagnation.