DUSSELDORF. Investors can look back with satisfaction on all around the year 2009. Since March, prices rose for equities, bonds and commodities. Sources of the bull market was because the experts are in exceptional agreement, the money glut, with the central banks flooded the world. Worldwide, 214-times the interest rates were lowered. In the U.S. dollars are distributed tax-free since December 2008, de facto to the banks. "Are awash with liquidity, and in many cases, historically low interest rates led to a very friendly market environment," says Virginie Maisonneuve, head of global and international equities at Schroders gently rotating the money machine.
This extraordinary exchange rate acceleration factor can not persist indefinitely. Many states are on the edge of their financial performance capabilities, many are now hopelessly in debt, not only in Europe. Therefore, the fiscal stimulus to support the economy in the next twelve months are likely to vary less than a year ago.
At the same time, interest rates are not likely to fall further. "The key challenge for the developed economies will be to find the perfect exit point from the low interest rates: not too fast or too soon in order not to choke off growth, but not too slow or too late to the financial markets off balance bring, "says Pierre Cailleteau, managing director in charge of country ratings Global Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s. When the interest rate levels in Europe, the USA and the industrialized countries of Asia is rising again, is not yet clear. But there are signals. Australia has three times since August already increased interest rates again, Israel and Norway were two. "These examples are of course set a precedent. In countries such as China can be the stimulus has already phased out gradually, "said Virginie Maisonneuve from Schroders.
Money is the medium term, thus again more expensive. As a consequence, investors will look closely, how and where they are investing in the stock or commodity market, because the returns achievable there are in competition with the interest rate market. Certificates provide extraordinary opportunities in this regard. With them, investors can without much effort in all asset classes and invest almost all world regions – and generate positive returns even if the prices are stagnant or even declines.
For most Western industrialized countries: The worst appears to be over, but a strong and sustainable economic recovery can be no question of the European Union in the United States and the States. "Our growth forecast for the U.S. for 2010 at 2.9 percent. But this is still no guarantee of a return to sustained high growth rates, "says Stefan Schilbe, chief economist at HSBC Trinkaus. The United States are facing the same on several fronts with the impact of financial crisis: "The unemployment rate is on a 26-year high, the wage totals continue to decline, households are on average around 124 percent of disposable income, heavily indebted. Simultaneously, the banks are very cautious in their lending, "said Schilbe.
In short: It is not expected that the U.S. consumers will drive like before, the economy in the United States with higher expenditures. The same goes for the euro zone. "Concern for the EU remains the labor market. With more than a stabilization of consumption expenditure is therefore not expected. Overall, we expect the euro-zone economic growth of 0.7 percent, "said Schilbe.
"The stock market could be in the U.S. and Europe this year and thus more vulnerable to setbacks, are more volatile," said Marcus Jendraszek the Dahl & Partner Asset Management. For investors, this means that pure index-linked investments with higher risks. All reward certificates for a long maturity also means a higher risk because of increasing volatility, the risk increases that the lower safety barrier is touched and lost the bonus effect is sought. If the volatility actually increases are Discount Certificates on shares or share indices for more interesting – but only then. Currently, the volatility is still moderate to low, and she takes off for months.
Investors still want to now benefit from the advantages of already discounted certificates, an increase in volatility does not want to wait, however, may rely on certificate funds, which constantly adjust their portfolio discount to market conditions. These include for instance Berenberg Global Opportunity Concept Portfolio Fund (Symbol: 542188) Or the HI ZertGlobal D & P (WKN: 532142), Which is not directly invested in discount certificates, but these structures directly maps on the sale of call options on selected European shares. "This approach has the advantage that profits from transactions in the Fund are not tax must be taken into account," said Marcus Jendraszek fund managers whose funds reached 2009 on 23 percent rate of return.
Brazil: Conquering the Crisis
The acronym BRIC stands for the initials of the countries Brazil, Russia, India and China. Since November 2001, the four letters stand as a synonym for an extraordinary growth story, discovered and coined by Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs O’Neill saw eight years ago with a study of a stir when he saw the four BRIC countries, predicted a golden future. Today, his predictions are exceeded by the time legends and even in parts of reality. "Since 2001, when I first wrote about the BRICs, their growth has been more developed than I would have itself accepted in the most optimistic scenario. I thought the end of 2010 they would contribute a maximum of ten percent of global GDP. Instead, it will be 16 to 17 percent, "said Jim O’Neill.
Especially in the financial crisis, the BRICs have even be able to show particular strengths. The economy in China and India, for example, will grow this year, probably in each case seven to ten percent, the banking systems of the four countries are barely involved in the global financial crisis, also plays the theme of public debt in the four countries a marginal role. On the contrary, Russia is the bottom line of debt, Brazil and China are among the creditor countries. Nevertheless, the BRICs as a package no automatic process. "In 2010, it will be difficult to invest in BRIC stocks. The market prices have already risen significantly in 2009, "said O’Neill.
Outlook: According to O’Neill’s analysis is left Brazil in recent years as the only nation of the four BRIC countries behind its forecasts slightly. For the next 10 years the Chief Economist, on average, however, predicts 4.5 percent economic growth – more than in past years. Even the analysts at HSBC Trinkaus favor among the BRIC countries are currently the country where the World Cup in four years and six years of hosting the Olympic Summer Games. "While higher interest rates, particularly in India hesitate to curb inflationary effects, in Brazil and observed no overheating of the economy," said Christian Heger, chief investment officer and board member of HSBC Global Asset Management in Germany. "The country has substantial foreign exchange reserves, earned surplus for ten years continuously, and the shares are at an average price-earnings ratio of 13 is still relatively attractive valuation."
Investors who want to benefit from a possible continuation of the bull market in stocks at Sugarloaf, can choose from several certificates on the Bovespa index, for example, a certificate from the Deutsche Bank (WKN: DB1CC7), RBS (WKN: ABN2MJ) Or Goldman Sachs (Symbol: GS0J2E). The complete package is available as a BRIC certificate, among others, Goldman Sachs, is the underlying DAXglobal BRIC Price Return Index (WKN: GS0NFN).
Yet Africa is a side issue from an investor’s point of view. However, in recent years, the black continent became more and more into the focus of investors – especially as many countries from the financial crisis only very indirectly affected. Africa has learned. "African economies have performed well during the financial crisis. Governments have come in the years of the commodity boom of money for a rainy day and could now fall back on. In particular, the North African states were relatively resilient to crises. The economies in countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt in the coming year will continue their robust growth 3 to 5 percent, "says Marion Mühlberger, Africa researcher at German bank Research.
Particular attention, however, also deserves Nigeria, richly blessed by far the most populous country in Africa and raw materials. The country has come true last year with a high-profile bank scandal in the headlines: Some financial institutions drove investors to buy our own shares, whose prices were artificially pushed higher. The vertigo of flying, much of the elite bankers of the country now has to answer in court, nine banks were close to bankruptcy. But the crisis has now endured. "Through injections of liquidity and capital injections from the central nine institutes were rescued. This has stabilized the banking sector and was therefore good for the whole economy, "said Mühlberger.
Outlook: When it came to investment on the African continent, especially South Africa had been in the spotlight. This view is increasingly shifting. Africa opens the capital markets. German investors can, for example with a certificate on the MSCI Egypt in the development of stock prices in Cairo and share (WKN: MS2U6L) Or of a possible upsurge of Moroccan stocks benefit (WKN: MS2U6M). The Nigerian stock market this year could possibly make for a pleasant surprise. An investment is possible with a certificate from the RBS (WKN: AA0VRW) To the ABN AMRO Nigeria Index, are gathered in the ten most liquid stocks. For all positive signs for Africa, however, investors should remember that the markets there are often not very liquid. The result is evidenced by the sales of certificates: High spreads between four to six percent are the rule rather than the exception (see table). Investments in these markets are worth so only with long-term investment horizon and exclusively as a blending component.
Commodities: It is not gold
Commodity investments in 2009 were among the winners. But the price spiral could turn now. "There are some negative signs," warns Eugen Weinberg, commodities expert at Commerzbank. A major problem was mainly the high proportion of investors who do not come from the resources industry. "The commodity market has its own laws. And one of them is simply this: If the demand for physical commodities is lower than supply, prices will fall, "said Weinberg. Given the high percentage of speculative investments may currently have a short fall in prices trigger a severe sell-off. "For the economic recovery is around the world not so far advanced that the demand has reached anywhere near the same level as two years ago," says Weinberg. The prices are justified, therefore, nothing – except the hope of financial investors that they continue to increase. And that’s what might not happen.
Outlook: Some commodity prices, in particular the industrial and precious metals could soon come under the high proportion of speculative investments under the wheels. The same effect in particular to the issue of oil. To take advantage of a possible price slide that investors could, for example invest in short mini futures on oil. But this is risky, not least because the commodity bull market still can continue for a while. Leverage papers are then quickly knocked out. Are more suitable in this case, Reverse-Bonus-Certificates that can generate positive returns even if the oil price until the end of the respective certificate only slightly reduced. Examples include a reverse Bonus Certificate on the Brent oil futures by Societe Generale (SIN SG1JXG), Or by Commerzbank (WKN CM9HLJ). If the most current at the ICE futures exchange traded oil futures is not at or above 120 euros (or 110 euro at Commerzbank Reverse Bonus Certificate) increases are at the end of double-digit returns possible (see table). Important: The oil market is very volatile. Therefore, such an investment suitable only for very risk-conscious investors.
Foreign exchange gain: Dollar and Pound
"Every time when investors have all agreed on one opinion, is it the other way around," says Jörg Scherer of HSBC Trinkaus. Here is what it is currently also in the development of U.S. dollar and British pound. Both currencies have long been under pressure. High debt, low interest rates and a weakening economy in Britain and the U.S. have added to the Anglo-Saxon currencies strongly – and rightly so. But the arguments for the collapse of the currency have long been known and become so general consensus is that they are increasingly losing their effectiveness. Moreover, if all investors in a market place tilts to one side, the trend – because then the buyers are missing on the other side. This trend is now observed in pounds and dollars.
Outlook: "From chart-term there are good reasons to believe that the U.S. dollar will gain against other currencies in the medium to long term return of value," says Jörg Scherer. For example, furnish evidence of the dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies of euro, yen, pound, Swedish krona, Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc. Here, the downward trend of the U.S. dollar in November 2009 has been broken. Even the British pound, the recent developments point to a sustainable trend, "the end of 2008, against the British pound against the euro almost one to one. That was an exaggeration. Experience shows that an exaggeration in one direction often follows a strong backlash, "says Scherer. "If the current upward trend since September 2007 of the euro against the pound could be broken, just enter this scenario," says Jörg Scherer.
Investors who are put on a resurgent U.S. dollar and / or to a comeback of the British pound, the corresponding mini futures are available – for example, a lever paper from HSBC Trinkaus (SIN TB1GVD), Which gains much of its value when the euro against the dollar loses value. Or even a mini Future of Deutsche Bank (WKN DB5AN4), The investor can benefit from a stronger euro against the British pound. Important: The two mini futures are examples. Investors should choose exactly with what leverage they put on a shift in the monetary field, and also compare prices of different suppliers together well. Also important: Select (For currency speculation, which have a rising dollar and put a stronger pound, investors put or short!) Mini futures. For the first enshrined in the underlying currency pair is crucial.
Conclusion: The year 2010 will surprise many investors. As always. It can not be otherwise. Trade is indeed generally only occur when there are market participants disagree with. Therefore, investors should be very aware of the opportunities to use that offer certificates: to place oneself in promising niches and to use innovative tools to get weaker stock market also in phases when its own account an increase in the number under the total grain. The products described above could contribute their part.