FRANKFURT (Dow Jones) – The decline in employment in the U.S. is down to the end of 2009 more than expected. However, the data were hochrevidiert for the previous month, so it came in November for the first increase in employment since the start of the recession two years ago. (Photo: Schneider)
As has also not increased the unemployment rate in December, contrary to expectations, Bank economists continue to go from a sustained recovery in the U.S. labor market.
As the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Friday, the number of persons employed outside agriculture back in December to 85,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had a significantly lower body for December expected to decline by 10,000. A particularly strong rise in construction employment in the manufacturing and wholesale.
At the same time the figures for November were revised upward. The Ministry is now reported an increase in jobs of 4,000, after an initial decrease by 11,000 had been identified. For October showed the other hand, a slightly worse Development (revision of previously minus 127,000 minus 111,000).
Despite the unexpectedly high value, the December-Abwärtsdynamik slowed significantly in the labor market in recent months: In the fourth quarter decreased on average per month, only 69,000 jobs were lost after the first three months of last year, yet an average of 691,000 job losses recorded in the month had been.
In the opinion of Postbank economist Heinrich Bayer’s disappointing at first glance, U.S. employment figures do not mean that the stabilizing trend that had become apparent in recent months, again was at an end. Temporary setbacks in an initially stabilizing and later the improving job market are normal, "said the economist. In addition, all available indicators pointed out that the U.S. economy is currently enjoying only the proximity of the employment threshold. "This certainly can expect that may occur in January or February, a growth in employment."
Commerzbank economist Christoph Balz also assumes that in the coming months is using a net job creation. Although the labor market returns to its old, flattening tendency was to remain "the trend in the labor market will improve." Unfortunately, the data will probably see the Fed confirmed its tentative assessment of the short-term outlook for the labor and to wait with a first rate hike until the fourth quarter of 2010, the courtship.
Determined at a separate survey in December unemployment rate remained steady at 10.0% compared to the previous month. Economists had forecast a rise to 10.1% here. The average hourly wages increased by the further particulars, according to 18.80 USD. The average working week remained at 33.2 hours.
In the U.S. particularly important in the service industry 4,000 jobs were cut in December. The retail sector lost 10,000 jobs. More marked decreases were recorded in the body manufacturing (down 27,000) and construction (down 53,000). In the public sector employment fell by 21,000 compared with November.
On the other hand have been set up 22,000 jobs in health care, and also in temporary employment, which is seen by economists as a leading indicator of future trends, have created 47,000 new jobs.