BERLIN. Germany is looking forward to a recovery that so far surpassed all expectations. By almost four percent of the wealth will grow this year. Even the otherwise conservative Chancellor spoke recently about full employment. "Work for all that is possible, we are working," said Angela Merkel to the delegate of a CDU-party convention. Minister Rainer Brüderle already demanded higher wages, "the industrious part of the boom."
present in this mixture the five economic situation of the Chancellor in Berlin its annual report. The supreme advisory body of the federal government – like many in the economy – disappointed by the coalition of reform fatigue and makes it – this is new – not a secret. "The trees do not grow to the sky," says the report, obtained by Handelsblatt in advance. "Can be no question of a new economic miracle," writes the Council of Experts in its 400-page report.
The economic experts – including Wolfgang Franz, president of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro, who teaches economics in Mainz – accuse the government of having rested on the successes of others. "She is now reaping the fruits of the reform policies of previous governments," reads the text. It highlights the labor market reforms, red-green and the corporate tax reform, the grand coalition.
In the reign of Merkel / Westerwelle contrast, a winged boost from exports have established, as suddenly as he came again subside. Economic growth next year is only 2.2 percent, down from 3.7 percent this year. The announcement by the Government of ‘fast track to full employment "can not understand the statement. The official unemployment rates in 2011 at seven percent, they predict.
"Reform – now!" this could be the significantly in substance and in tone, harshly worded report writing. The economic experts are still waiting for the announced offensive formation. Research and development expenditure of the companies should be tax-favored. A resource-poor country needs a functioning education system, which it did not. The announcement by Merkel autumn of decisions is imperative to think and listen to several points that must now be addressed. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Just before the next G-20 world financial summit in Seoul, the Advisory Council on the government of the major industrial and emerging from a devastating indictment. "The financial system is still vulnerable to setbacks," the five economic experts, the chapters begin to reform the financial markets. Particularly clearly the vulnerability has become acute in the wake of funding problems of Greece, which almost culminated in a € and banking crisis. The reforms of the crisis management at international level to criticize the scientist as tough. Despite a plethora of regulatory measures that will be missed by the States themselves stated purpose, never to be reopened by the financial system hostage.
A similarly critical picture of the progress in establishing a new financial architecture also recently signed ex-Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück (SPD). Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (both CDU) defend against the recent G-20 Decisions on financial market regulation.
Criticism of the Advisory Council shall exercise especially on the unresolved problems in dealing with systemic financial institutions like Deutsche Bank. There was no internationally agreed measures for the reduction of system rules are still relevant in view, as participating countries coordinated with the relevant insolvency system and cross-border institutions are to proceed. "In order to reduce systemic risks, a levy or an equity award for systemic risk is urgently required," says the annual report. In addition, as an international European insolvency law for systemic institutions is still a distant prospect.
As a bright spot, the economists alone the cost of the federal government after its launch the restructuring law for troubled banks. However, the Council of Experts warns Finance Minister Schäuble, the reform of national financial supervision to tackle. "The full integration of financial supervision in the German Central Bank should not be further postponed," the scientists write. Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Labour Market: More moderation please!
The number of posts increases, unemployment decreases – and if the policy is not sparks between them is likely to continue the trend. When it comes to the Advisory Council, should the government in the labor market, especially policies impose restraint.
For example, that wage policy: the average of moderate wage increases this year had clearly "employment-effects." Therefore the government should now step up calls for high wage settlements, at least not unnecessarily remind the "five wise men". It can speak but do not mind that companies are increasingly moving their employees with bonuses on voluntary recovery.
The Council also recommends caution when it comes to immigration: the opening of borders to Eastern Europeans of the EU economy will tend to offer from 2011 to access a larger pool of skilled workers. This was a chance – and certainly not a threat, the "protective measures" such as minimum wage requires. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Taxes: No room for cuts
issue given the ongoing difficult situation of public funds to provide the farming practices, the demands for an early tax cut clearly rejected. "The margins are wide-ranging tax relief for the current legislative period also very limited," the scientists write. After initial trials and tribulations and the promise of the black-yellow government "more gross from net" fiscal policy had now arrived on the stony ground of reality. The beginning of 2011 comes into force budget rule forces a decisive fiscal consolidation. In this respect it is good that the government had abandoned the contract are still in the coalition tax cut plans or deferred.
The savings package of the Federal Government, which aims to decrease the federal budget over the next four years by 80 billion € praise, the economic gurus. "With the package in the future, the measures are complied with the requirements of the budget rule," they write. However, the Finance Minister Schäuble economists advise you to take account of the better economic development in the calculation of the gradual reduction of debt in the coming years. The credibility of the consolidation effort would be increased if the structural component for the year 2010 would be recalculated and adjusted to the improved economic conditions, says the report. Schäuble rejects the past. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Education and innovation are the opinion of the Expert Council – in addition to transport infrastructure – the main levers to prevent a "slip of the economy" and perhaps even allow for higher growth. Finally, the German education level in international comparison "only fair" to warn the economists yet again time
Your suggestions are very concrete: investment in education should begin as early as possible – for example in the form of a compulsory pre-school year. They also call for "nationwide all-day schools." Despite the four-billion program of the previous Federal Government, that are still the exception. It would also improve the situation of migrant children. They already provide a third of children go to ten years, on average, but less likely to kindergarten.
In order to stimulate more innovation, the Advisory Council insists on a tax research. This "must remain a high priority on the agenda." The coalition had announced a tax base bonus for research, but postponed for lack of money. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Too timid, not consistently enough. At the health reform of the black-yellow government finds the Experts little good. He criticized that the next year, threatening the health insurance deficit will be financed primarily by increasing the income-related contribution of 14.9 to 15.5 percent. The promised gradual disengagement of the funding from the wage income dependent on additional contributions to social bonding and a freeze in the contribution rate to 15.5 percent would move so de facto to the year 2013. Previously, only a few funds would require additional contributions. For this, in principle, correct part of the reform is only with the paper. And the Council expresses doubt that the policy will have the courage of the federal election in 2013 to adhere to the unpopular additional contributions.
Also accuses the Council of the Coalition to cement by unilateral promotion of private health insurance, unequal competition in the health insurance market, rather than bring together private and state-owned company on a Citizens premium. Critical see the economic experts that the federal government decided not to make more efficient through managed competition between providers, the system. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
The euro crisis is far from over. The risk premiums on government bonds of Portugal and Ireland are that of Greece close to the record highs of May. To the financial markets in the long term to take the desire for the Euro-attacks, strike the Advisory Council before a three-pillar model. First, "The Stability and Growth Pact needs to be reformed so that countries can be sanctioned with consistently poor fiscal discipline," write the reviewers. The European Council adopted this reform is inadequate, since the decision on sanctions would remain in the hands of finance ministers, who come mainly from countries with fiscal problems.
Therefore urge the farming practices, strengthening the role of the EU Commission to the detriment of the Council. Because of the now valid Stability Pact, which limits the debt of countries to three percent of gross domestic product, was ineffective in the years before the crisis, there was omitted because of political considerations on penalties – including to Germany. It is with this concern, however, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had stood up for "automatic sanctions" had failed. Especially against France could not prevail Germany.
Secondly, the Advisory Council on "a unified financial supervision with comprehensive skills. Because the cause of the crisis was € not only the indebtedness of the budget in Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but also the rampant lending to households and businesses.
The decisive third, the creation of a permanent set of rules for emergencies, after night-and-dagger operations, as in May when EU and IMF approved a 750 billion rescue fund of € called into being was to be avoided. The new crisis mechanism to support Member countries in serious disruptions of the capital markets and will replace the current rescue fund. Crucial to the status quo is the mandatory participation of the private sector – ie the owners of government bonds. This, however, also calls for the federal government. Whether they can succeed with it is still open. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
This year is likely to complete the statutory care or with a surplus. In the medium term, however, threaten the red. Reason already decided are performance improvements, the planned expansion of the concept of care and the aging of the population.
The economic experts therefore argue for a fundamental reform of the financing. Legal and still well-stocked private care funds should be pooled in an insurance system, financed by a wage package with independent citizens steuerfinanziertem social compensation. amend the plan of the coalition that carried a mandatory private long-term care insurance (nursing Riester), the wise see as second-best solution. However, since they have little hope that politics can bring himself to a great reform, they are also for the care Riester. They also call in a first step, the nursing contribution to future retirees than for workers to lift. This should relieve the factor labor and maintenance costs are fairly shared between the generations. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Local governments: financing change quickly
In the first planned community financial reform, the Federal Government could count on the full backing of the five economic experts. "It is very gratifying that the federal government is taking a new approach to a reform of municipal finances," they write and commend the plan to abolish the business tax and instead allow the communities to surcharges on the income and corporation tax.
However, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) last week just abandoned the project in a top-level talks with local representatives. He now wants a "first step" the income tax so modified that the height of the municipalities within a certain range can determine. This rejects the FDP vehemently because they feared in the face of local financial need tax increases. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!
A VAT reform should address the government vigorously, according to the economists. The coalition also wants 18 November advise. In Opinion various reform options are examined, which would serve different purposes.
When it comes to the government, especially the simplification, then they should strive for a uniform VAT rate. But if it primarily deals with the fiscal consolidation, then they should restrict the reduced rate of seven percent on food, transport and culture and use the extra revenue to put public finances.
The current division into goods that are taxed at the regular rate of 19 percent, and others for which only seven percent are paid to criticize the experts: It results in separation problems, and subsequently to litigation, which in turn has provided new definitions for the . draw Legendary is the different treatment of horses and mules, fast food to eat on the spot or take away.
The favorite option is the majority of experts at a single rate of 16.5 percent: There would be no revenue loss, the system would be simplified. Poorer households were burdened with only five euros per month. However, this involves the expert Peter Bofinger in a minority vote in doubt: There would be considerable political-economic problems, because such a reform would be perceived as socially unjust. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
Pension: a plea for raising the retirement age to 67
In the debate over the planned increase in the retirement age to 67 from the perspective of farming practices, one thing necessary: "pension-political stability". It was necessary, as planned in 2012 to begin the gradual raising of retirement age. A shift, as it calls for the SPD would result in just the Babyboomerjahrgänge, the 40 – to 50-year-olds could still retire earlier. The goal of discharge to the pension funds would only reach a small part, warns the Council of Experts.
Also for economic reasons, must adhere to the policy of retirement at 67th Work longer because the strength demographic factors shrinking workforce and thus have positive growth effects for the whole economy. Also complements the Council’s assessment of the federal government to increase significantly the demand for older workers in the future and their health will be much better if in 2031 the first allowed to go into retirement at 67. With the error, which is currently difficult situation of older workers is a permanent condition, the policy must therefore quickly clean up.
Vehemently criticized the way the black and yellow budgetary policy. The deletion of pension contributions for Hartz IV recipients and the subsidies to the detriment Ostrentner was an unfair-yard of the pension funds. It would lead to higher pension contributions. Financial System: Government has not systemic risk removed
Labour Market: More moderation please!
Taxes: No room for cuts
Education: actual state average, investment is needed mandatory
Health: Policy discouragement led to the half-hearted reform
Monetary Union: Strengthening the power of the EU Commission
Long-term care: Try to prevent slipping into the red
Local governments: financing change quickly
VAT: Simplify! Simplify!