HB FRANKFURT / DUESSELDORF. The chances for another record attempt on the German stock market are in the new week is not bad, although the Dax went out on Friday in late trading of steam and some investors tended to short-term profit taking. Most analysts see the Dax in the new week of trading further upside due to rising corporate profits and the prospect of cheap money from the U.S. Federal Reserve. "In addition to ample liquidity and the moderate assessments should also be positive impetus from the increasing takeover activity and the successful launch in the U.S. reporting season," we read in a market commentary of Landesbank Berlin.
It looks like year-end rally
From a technical perspective the market Dax has left the band established sideways for weeks now to the top. More investors jump on the moving train are raised, the chances for a lasting record attempt on the German stock market well. The DAX reached on Friday already with 6508 points, a two-year high and has won it since the start of around nine percent. "The financial markets begin to normalize, but that is not arrived at the stock market", market analyst Ralf Grönemeyer Silvia Quandt Research convinced. "It all looks so after a year-end rally, we could still see the 7000 Points in Dax."
All Eyes on the Fed
Similarly, many investors see this. Measured by Dax sentiment, the proportion of optimists is as high as in the recent boom in 2006. Exactly these expectations of investors could easily go up for the Dax but a problem. Given the most optimistic projections – the U.S. central bank manages an economic recovery, the mood in the company stock remains at peak levels and the company’s results to keep the high dynamics – increases the risk of negative surprises.
The main focus of investors should be in the next few trading days on the U.S. Federal Reserve. They will tap the testimony of the Fed for clues to what extent it will engage with a further easing of monetary policy of the U.S. economy under the arms. Solely for the Tuesday previous five public appearances leading U.S. central bankers have been announced. On Wednesday, followed by the "Beige Book" of the Fed to aid economic development.
However, the bet on the Fed is quite risky: So the U.S. central bank can, at best, a renewed crash the U.S. economy avoid recession in the. A positive growth outlook is not so, however, given. The result: Looking to the medium-term earnings expectations built up with considerable potential disappointment.
In the opinion of CommerzbankJörg Krämer, chief economist at the Fed will increase if only because of the weakening labor market in early November its purchase program for bonds. Analysts expect a volume of 500 billion to one trillion dollars. Also, U.S. economic data would likely be tapped for monetary policy according to their impact, on Monday that industrial production in September and on Friday the economic index of the Fed of Philadelphia (Philly Fed Index ") and the leading indicators for September.
The Fed has been estimated by market analyst Ralf Grönemeyer but under no pressure just because of the economic situation. "The central bank must stand ready to support and therefore, because the banks have opened new problems in securitized mortgages," explains the analyst.
Banks in focus
Against the background of the suspended foreclosures of homes is likely the banking week on Wall Street and from legal tense. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs and do Bank of America present their quarterly balance sheets. Morgan Stanley tags will follow.
ZEW – and Ifo index to rise again
Beyond the banking sector, the U.S. balance season continues in full swing. Analysts expect that will surpass, as in the past week, many companies are expected. In Europe, the record season outside Germany continues to gain momentum. With Peugeot (Wednesday) L’Oreal (Thursday) and Volvo (Friday) submit competitors DAX companies numbers.
Information on the situation of the German economy expect participants from the ZEW index on Tuesday and the Ifo index on Friday. PostbankEconomist Fabienne Riefer credited as the key indicator for Europe’s largest economy force Ifo index although with diminishing expectations, but a continued good assessment of the situation.