Trader on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: Unlike the economists , most equity experts are currently confident. Source: AP
FRANKFURT. Unlike most economists, equity analysts are confident. "The uncertainties about the growth prospects should be on both sides of the Atlantic, let us not forget that many companies are present in good shape , "said Eric Le Coz , chief strategist of Carmignac . The fund company has just increased its equity exposure only massive.
The balance sheet for the second quarter of 2010 is very impressive : around 77 percent of companies in the U.S. Equity Index S & P 500, which have hitherto presented their results could exceed the estimates of analysts. can be read on the "S & P 500 Index Positive Surprise ", which calculates the data provider Bloomberg.
" The rising corporate profits, as many companies have used the crisis to reduce costs and increase productivity, " said John Carey , a fund manager of Pioneer. Particularly well in comparison to the cut branches from the so-called cyclicals , so the heavily dependent on cyclical companies.
Prime example is the car maker . But technology companies such as Apple and Microsoft pleasantly surprised . "Almost all industrial companies could profit expectations during the current reporting season clearly surpassed. Similar results were positive in the IT sector. The lowest rates are , however , energy and telecommunications companies, "said Carsten Klude at MM Warburg. He expects that will change this picture in the coming months ahead . Cyclicals were still more potential than the defensive stocks.
How much is factored in ?
If the company figures be better than all the expected, then it can with the courses but actually go uphill. Not quite . In fact, the numbers have been very much " better than expected turn out . " For a degree of surprise seems almost the norm . On average, the S & P 500 Index Positive Surprise "in the past three years – that is the heart of the financial crisis – after all, at 67 percent. As for the positive surprises, was the fourth quarter of 2009 so far the best in recent years. With nearly 80 percent since the surprise rate was even slightly higher than today.
The question remains whether rising corporate profits are now priced in already in the courses. No, says Pioneer Fund Manager Carey , who has more than 30 years’ experience in the investment industry. " Usually, praises the stock market a future income , but sometimes they respond with massive discounts also on current events . " As in the past few days , when the stock markets worldwide after a gloomy outlook for the Fed blinked . For the Fed , the situation is so serious that they will continue to supply the market with cheap money .
Carey does not worry about it . On the contrary . He points setbacks as an opportunity to offer shares nachzukaufen . Companies in the S & P 500 are currently in section with the 13 times its expected profits evaluated. By historical standards , they appear not to be so expensive. Interesting businesses are the exploration and oil services company Helmerich & Payne and Schlumberger Says Carey. In the health care industry is worth a look at Baxter and Johnson & Johnson.
Investors are holding back – yet
Daniel also Zindstein , head of portfolio management at the Financial Services GECAM sees opportunities. Of all the bad mood among investors speak for " rising rates . The logic behind this: If investors have so far held back from fear , then is there still a lot of money that can flow into the markets.
With a renewed slump in economic activity does not expect Zindstein . " to philosophize about a new recession, we think is absurd. Show all experience that from a liquidity glut , how it was produced worldwide by central banks , and the resultant low level of interest rates and the very steep yield curve, always resulted in an upswing. " Whether it can develop a sustainable recovery, has yet seen.