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Doubts about the people’s share

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Das Logo der Deutschen Telekom. Analysten beurteilen die Wachstumsperspektiven des Konzerns mit Skepsis.  Quelle: dpa

The logo of Deutsche Telekom. Analysts assess the growth prospects of the Group with skepticism. Source: AP

DÜSSELDORF. The price jump was brilliant – and a reward for the first quarter. Shares of Deutsche Telekom on Wednesday to submit more than three percent. Because the group has managed in the first quarter of the turn in the black. Yet how sustainable is the share price?

Analysts are there very different opinion. The camp of the optimists is only slightly larger than that of the pessimists. According to Bloomberg agency, currently, compared to 16 buy recommendations twelve sales recommendations.

Among the optimists, for example, LBBW analyst Stefan Borscheid: "We see the German Telekom on track to achieve its annual forecast of 6.2 billion euros," he says. The Telekom had its target of free cash flow of € 6.2 billion and an adjusted operating profit of about € 20 billion reaffirmed. Borscheid reaffirmed its buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of € 10.50.

Even analysts at SEB recommend the paper of the Deutsche Telekom continued to purchase. The telecommunications company had in the first quarter in all regions except the U.S., where negative currency effects had beaten record, held up well, says a recent study of the bank. Furthermore, the Telekom with a net margin of 4.8 per cent progress in operational.

The bottom line is deserved Telekom 767 million euros after a loss of more than one billion euros a year earlier. A year ago, had high depreciation of the mobile phone subsidiary in the UK Telekom pushed into the red. The operating profit rose in the first three months. The consolidated turnover could Telekom keep pace with a decline of 0.6 percent to 15.8 billion euros practically stable.

TelekomCEO René Obermann was satisfied: "We have stabilized the business operations continue, in part markedly improved, and implemented at the same time important steps of our new strategy," he said on Wednesday. Obermann will be strong demand for mobile internet, broadband, and not least to make IT services and sales advantage in the years to increase again organically. contributed to this positive development, according to the Telekom especially the business in Germany, which is increasingly stabilized.

Obermann was however not convinced all analysts. For example, advises the Swiss bank UBS to divest the shares of Deutsche Telekom. The fair value of the share is to assess the UBSAnalysts at only € 8.70. "The outlook is worrying, warns UBSAnalyst Keval Khiroya. In particular, the prospects for some Eastern European subsidiaries and affiliates, as well as for the Greek OTE were negative. The German Telekom is now at about 30 percent OTE involved, the Greek state still holds 20 percent. By 2011, the Greek Government Telekom another ten percent of the OTEShares offer. The Eastern European business will be impacted by the difficult economic situation and the high competitive pressure.

Joeri Sels is also skeptical of the DZ Bank: He also recommends the Telekomto sell shares and sees fair value at nine euros. The ailing U.S. business is not a new trend to recognize reasonable Sels his doubts.

Conclusion: The paper is about a decade after its IPO in 1996, still far below the issue price of just € 14. Is no improvement in sight, quite the opposite.