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Guarantee top, bonus flop


Der Bulle vor der Frankfurter Börse: Experten sind optimistisch für Zertifikate gestimmt. Foto: Archiv

The cop in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: Experts are optimistic for certificates. Photo: Archive

HB DÜSSELDORF. At five to 15 percent could grow the market for allowances in the next five years. The second respondent believes at least almost every trend barometer of certificates in 2010, a representative survey of the Steinbeis University Berlin on behalf of DZ Bank among roughly 200 asset managers, consultants and investment banking specialists.

Keep the right asset manager, would reverse the negative trend on the certificates market, which is in financial crisis collapsed sensitive. Although the deposit share of allowances in recent years has remained stable, the average scale amounts to the same period have declined steadily. Did the customer in 2007 was € 17 269 on average, it currently only they order for 14 474 €.

Accessing likely investors in particular on three issues: the vast majority of respondents (82 percent) sees commodities as an important issue for the future, followed by emerging markets (77 percent) and renewables (76 percent). Only one in five currencies other hand, classifies as a hot topic. Energy and agricultural commodities are in the view of asset managers as the underlying for a more relevant certificates as precious metals.

Are on the rise, going by the respondents, including sustainable investments: 70 percent of study participants, and thus a third more than last year, are of the opinion that the investment theme of sustainability will become more important. The share of sustainable products will rise in three years from the current four to ten percent. "We see a sustainable investment trend, even though many investors in their investment decision, nor hesitate," says Peter Schirmbeck, head of retail operations of the DZ Bank. "Issuers currently face the challenge of combining demand and investor needs the right product offering."

Noteworthy: In the financial and economic crisis, the private investors have not turned away from the sometimes complicated products. The current share certificates to the managed portfolio is at the level of 2007. "Certificates have established themselves as firm size in the deposits of investors," said Jens Small, professor at the Steinbeis-Hochschule, in view of the results. The experts surveyed expect that the proportion of passive investments in the portfolios of private investors continued to grow – the percentage of active plants melts.

While the survey according to experts, is to increase the share of allowances in the depots of the present ten to eleven percent in 2013 and grow the proportion of passive investment of ten to twelve percent, are likely to actively managed funds (28 percent), stocks (15 percent) and remain closed funds (five percent) to its current level. Decrease the proportion of bonds – and by four percentage points to 28 percent, predict experts.

Even with the various product categories, there are winners and losers. Increased demand expected a majority (61 percent) of asset managers and advisers for bank guarantee certificates, which already have the largest share of the allowance market. Even for Index Certificates (54 percent), equity loans (48 percent) and Express certificates (39 percent), the experts are positive about. Especially Express Certificates have been catching up compared to last year.

Discount certificates are likely to fall on the other hand in the favor of investors. Only about one in three respondents predicted for this species increasing sales, three years ago there were still nearly 70 percent. Also, the sales potential of leverage certificates is estimated continuously negative since 2007. Particularly significant is the change of mood in bonus certificates: Went in 2007 with 81 percent of the experts from rising paragraphs from it are in the current survey, just 29 percent.