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IMF warns of currency crisis in East

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Vor einer Wechselstube in Warschau: Die künftige Geldpolitik ist Streitpunkt zwischen Notenbank und Regierung. Quelle: Reuters

Before Exchange in Warsaw: The future of money politics is contention between central bank and government. Source: Reuters

BERLIN. "This should cause concern, because it cost growth," said Belka. For example, the Polish zloty in recent years have won against the euro in the top 22 percent in value. Only the South African Rand reported a stronger increase.

However, in 2009 Poland was the only EU country with economic growth, which had boosted the zloty strong. At the height of the Depression, the Polish currency was scratched on the threshold of five zlotys to the euro. Then she gave but again clear: Yesterday the price was 3.86. But Hungary’s forint was 2009 at 17, the Czech koruna by 8.6 and Romanian leu appreciated by 3.9 percent.

Despite the strong appreciation of many Eastern European countries see any need to change its interest rate policy. The Polish central bank decided yesterday to leave its key interest rate to the ninth month in a row on the record low of 3.5 percent. Hungary, which after a sharp decline of its economy in 2009 for this year expects an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) had to start of the week while the prime rate is reduced by a quarter percentage point to the record low of 5.5 percent. But the Czech prime rate was unchanged at one percent.

Poland’s central bank justified its decision with uncertainties in economic growth, which was located in 2009 despite the crisis at 1.7 percent: For example, the retail sales but to take on, but the construction industry is consistent with a decline by 25 percent in February, not as bad as it has been for seven years more, analysts said.

This year, the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk expects 2.1 to 4.1 percent growth. However, it has this week finally adopted by the 2012 target date for euro adoption. In particular, the budget deficit is a candidate to meet the monetary union.

Overshadowed the latest warning of a further rise of the zloty exchange rate and the resulting by the central bank (NBP) to draw conclusions for further interest rate policy of a dispute between the central bankers with the policy: How will Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski in 2009 the IMF granted the standby line of credit extended, the Fed believes this is unnecessary.

Warsaw had requested in 2009 a flexible credit line of 20.5 billion dollars in the IMF, thus possibly increase the currency reserves, if an intervening against speculators zloty was necessary. When the zloty exchange rate subsequently stabilized, Poland had the credit not retrieve. Politically embarrassing the dispute was posted on Monday, as central bank chief Slawomir Skrzypek Rostowski and their opposite positions at a meeting with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn represented in Warsaw.

Now government must Tusk, who met yesterday with the Central Bank board to decide. In addition, Cabinet and central bank are in conflict over the transfer of central bank profits to the government: Rostowski calls by the NBP "at least ten billion zlotys from the profit of the year 2009 for his current budget, media reported Warsaw.

The Fed, however, which yesterday changed its currency reserve management, against the wishes of her boss Skrzypek and thus a higher profit could be calculated wants to pay less than half of that sum to the state. Rostowski will reduce central bank with a high-income borrowing his country. Poland’s public debt had risen in 2009 to 51 percent of GDP for 2010 is an expected debt of 57 percent.