In no time the prices of some agricultural commodities soared . Source: AP
Products from the field typically offer No component of the headlines. Times the crop better, sometimes worse. And farmers always complaining about too low Prices and bad weather , probably since it is agriculture . But in the recent months over themselves the Ereignissse . Within a short time shot up the prices of some agricultural commodities in the air. The price of maize increased in the past twelve months by 25 Percent , the price of palm oil by 30 percent and walk around for rape 50 percent. A bushel of wheat today costs even twice as much as two months ago . Trigger for this extraordinary Jump in price for wheat was the imposed recently by the Russian government Export ban on cereals. Russia conducted last year for 18 Million tonnes of wheat and was the third largest wheat exporter in the World. The failure of Russian wheat supplies triggered a corresponding Shock to the commodity futures markets from .
Such sudden Preisansteige of Agricultural commodities are available for a trend could last long term. "The demand for agricultural commodities faster than supply , "says Eugene Weinberg, commodities expert at Commerzbank. While also increasing the productivity in agriculture. This has recently The report " Agricultural Outlook found " jointly by the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation ( OECD ) once is published annually. According to this Study is the production of agricultural Goods in forty years due improved cultivation techniques and Fertilization methods , although likely higher by 70 per cent are from today. But that is projected to probably not sufficient to remove the entire to feed mankind. For if the world population continues growing at the rate as in the past Decades , are already in 2025 more than eight billion people live on this planet. Today There are 6.9 billion. In the long term , the Price increases for major food items result .
This is due However, not only the quantitative increase the world’s population , but also the changing eating habits in the emerging economies – Especially in the Middle Kingdom . "The growing middle class in China consumed more meat , oils and Fats. The increased demand for animal Food products means an significant increase in livestock and so that a greater consumption of agricultural commodities , " Eugen Weinberg said . At the same time , China has the problem that urbanization increases and only 15 percent of the total area for the agricultural use are suitable . To Part will be useful in developing country of the cities covered with concrete , the rest is managed not particularly efficient. So it is that China – still a few Years, the largest exporter of agricultural commodities – Today , for example, in soybean , maize and sugar to the largest Importers throughout the world.
Commodity Certificates with futures
While it is anticipated that the prices of Agricultural products in the coming years and get decades in the average be . But investors who use to benefit certificates from the trend like, should consider carefully whether they should invest directly in commodities. "The market for agricultural commodities is one Professional market with many uncertainties for private investors, " warns Benne Gerd Wirtz, Managing founding shareholders the SJB fund Skyline OHG 1989 Rhine from the Korschenbroich. Many raw materials have a high Volatility. Short term, prices could rapidly falling . "Sugar is a good Example. 2009 reached the price of sugar after crop failures , a 35 -year – High. As such, both hurry more capacity established. But as the demand after much more expensive raw materials decreased , the price fell within a few Months by about 40 percent , "says Benne Wirtz.
New Futures cost money
Private investors must not only the market keeping a very watchful eye on but also on a special Futures trading with care for the the raw material certificates is of great importance : "Who in Commodities wants to invest , need to know that additional futures mostly in a so-called contango situation " are so Eugen Weinberg. Specifically : commodity certificates invest not in the raw material, but based at the price of the respective Futures, which on the futures exchange be traded. For each month in are the future, a future , the Expectation reflects the price traders for wheat , soy or, for example Raps current term Be expected. Puts the delivery at the end of each preceding month closer (The current September contract , for example, ends in late August), have that investors decide well in advance , whether , for example, wheat, the equivalent hold it in futures, want to have delivered, obtaining their Futures simply sell or whether them the money back to the next due Future invest.
This re-investment called stockbrokers " roll ". The result is the Future Roles sometimes cheaper, for agricultural commodities but usually more expensive than the last sold futures . This situation is as Contango means and leads to rolling losses. In this case , bringing the number the futures, investing in the new , including commodity futures, the the respective commodity certificate relates. Investors who for several months investment of time in agricultural commodity certificates, must hope that the prices rise much faster than the certificate lose by rolling losses in value.
Issuers with new strategies
"Those who invest directly in commodities still wants his capital should be at least wide spread , "advises Weinberg. A matching Underlying this is the S & P GSCI Agriculture TR Index, the price of raw wheat, soybeans, Coffee , cotton , cocoa , maize and sugar maps . Goldman Sachs, for example, offers a currency-hedged index certificate on this commodity basket of (WKN: GS0YTR ).
Another currency- certificate minimize the loss of the roll a bit should , also comes from Goldman Sachs, the S & P GSCI Agriculture E28 Strategy Index Certificate ( WKN: GS0RR1 ) the rolling process was optimized. "On the one have been for some commodity futures Roll Earlier dates specified. On the other are also in some cereals Special features of the seasonal Roll into account processes , "said Jochen The fishermen of Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Strategy seeks to to invest in each of the contract, the nature of supply , demand and stocks Experience the highest risk premium contains . Whether the strategy long-term benefits , will still show . In the past twelve Months developed the courses of two certificates highly similar.
Investors who profit from the agricultural boom want without official ermin market their fingers burn , should Certificates See on baskets of stocks closely, where agriculturally oriented industries will be considered. This include not only the farmers themselves, the higher prices in their products can achieve . With the blooming Farmland to grow around the farms , other Industries: seed -producers, Water utilities, farm equipment manufacturers, Logistics companies , and specialized Processing plants for agricultural Products benefit from the boom on the farms.
Banks have recognized this trend and a number of allowances on brought to market , exactly in this so-called Agribusiness companies are investing . often serves as a base value of the DAX Global Agribusiness Index. In demAktienkursbarometer are 40 companies summarizes their money around the area of agricultural products deserve . These include not only companies from the Agricultural production and agrochemical companies , Producers of biofuels and mechanical engineers . The Agribusiness Index was only in July 2007 by the German Stock Exchange established and reflected in direct comparison with the Dax more than brave : Since its official Start has the index below the line still increased more than 20 percent. The Dax noted , however today some 20 Percent lower than in July 2007. The Agribusiness Index is a price and calculated as performance index. Both versions are offered as certificates. Goldman Sachs , for example, offers a certificate on the performance Index (WKN: GS0TAG ), in which the dividends businesses into the course development be included.
Another way is the German Bank. She has managed a certificate in Race ( WKN: DB4AGR ) : Underlying is Solactive of Agri Business Index, developed in collaboration with the index forging Structured Solutions. Includes 20 shares the values of the area Agribusiness . The companies are under Market capitalization weighted , adjusting will be held quarterly. Also in agricultural commodities stocks index certificate Vontobel (WKN: VFP5U6 ) activates redeployed , some several times a Month. On balance , it certainly appears obviously not much make out whether an actively managed basket of agribusiness is , or just passively Development of the Dax – Global Agribusiness Index replicates . In the performance differences between the three certificates Goldman Sachs, and Vontobel German bank is not much.
Who in individual industries around the Food chain industry focus would like to share is , for example of Deutsche Bank and UBS, each certificate to fertilizer manufacturers. During Solactive the Global Aviation Index for German bank (WKN: DB4DUN ) by Structured Solutions is actively managed , is based the composition of the ten shares UBS Agri Chemical Index ( WKN: UB8963 ) in market capitalization in the range the agar – enterprises, with weighting per share at 15 percent limited. The basket of shares is only adjusted once a year. With less Required to reach the Swiss in this Case more returns : While the Solactive Fertilizer Index Certificate in past twelve months, over six Percentage has increased , is the UBS Certificate with nearly 18 percent performance in the direct Comparison clearly ahead .
Another industry that compliance deserves a manufacturer of palm oil. With a Market share of around 30 percent the oil from palm trees before the soybean oil most important vegetable oil in the world. In the past five years increased in the cultivation Cut by ten percent a year since 1995 The world production has doubled. has doubled the price – and Although in the past one-year period. The number of companies in this Market make their money , is manageable. Accordingly , they benefit also listed on the increased demand – also reflected in the 30 Percent appreciation of the Asian Solactive Plantation certificate from BNP Paribas (WKN: BN1W3L ).
Conclusion : Investments in certificates of individual Raw materials can be very risk- Investors should be promising, if they are familiar and Market constantly in sight . A somewhat less risky alternative to individual investments provide agricultural commodity index certificates. These papers have even during the downturn in the stock market relative Strength proved.
Tip: In principle, Investors and the foreign exchange front in the View reserve . Raw materials are always traded in U.S. dollars, many agribusiness Companies in the equity indices are U.S. companies. Certificates of currency hedging to investors from losses Protect if the dollar falls further . If the bottom line of the statement: The issue of commodities creates opportunities , is But no area in which classical " earn Buy and hold " strategy money leaves . These are the markets for complex and the volatility has increased dramatically.