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Optimism reigns again in commodities


DUSSELDORF. On international commodity markets once dominated the optimist. Given the price experienced setbacks, the actors have become more cautious while, but the starting conditions for the new year are much better than they were even a year ago. Experts predict a further rise in prices.

"The prices are moderate increase," predicts Frank Schallenberger by Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg (LBBW). He anticipates openings from ten to 15 percent should the world economy expected to grow – as the LBBW – by 3.9 percent. Even Giles Keating from the Credit Suisse believe in rising prices: "The commodity prices are strongly correlated with the development of global industrial production." Since this should recover further, commodity prices are also likely to continue to grow.

Since the beginning of 2009, prices of many commodities recovered. The cyclical downturn in the second half of 2008 could not offset the raw but – with few exceptions – and therefore still below their record highs. A determining factor for the continuous rise in prices is unchanged, the high demand for raw materials from developing countries like China.

In their optimistic outlook, the experts look back on the still-developing emerging economies, emerging markets, which have a high demand for raw materials. "Of them the most dynamic of work," said Schallenberger. An assessment of the Credit Suisse confirmed: "Emerging markets have, apart from some exceptions, a significantly higher growth potential than developed countries."

Christoph Eibl, Tiberius Asset Management Specialist from the raw material is generally a little skeptical. "We are experiencing a liquidity-upward trend that will continue for up to the first quarter," said Eibl. The further evolution then depends on it, but how stable will be the recovery even without state economic stimulus programs. In a slight overall positive trend in the commodity markets Eibl expected that the price volatility will increase.

The outlooks on individual commodities, the opinions of the experts drift apart to some extent. LBBW expert Schallenberger sees the greatest potential for agricultural commodities: "There is still pent-up potential." Industrial metals such as copper, however, had already risen strongly. Opportunities he sees only a nickel. "Copper is due to a lower availability of our favorite among the metals," says the other hand, when the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs until the end of 2010, the price would rise to 7 $ 755. Last tasted a ton of copper on the London Metal Exchange about 7 $ 500.

Experts focus on base metals

The Credit Suisse also favors mainly copper and some other industrial metals and platinum and oil, "are expected after the strong performance of precious metals 2009 2010 cyclical commodities such as oil and base metals are among the winners," it says in Switzerland. This is also talk that the economic recovery is broadening win. Credit Suisse Experts also believe that commodities will prove to the rate hikes that began in the second half is expected to be quite resilient.

Slightly higher prices, experts expect the crude oil market. The estimates range from $ 80 at LBBW over $ 90 at Goldman Sachs, and up to $ 95 at the Credit Suisse. The Goldman analysts see this "lower prices and higher prices at the beginning of the end of the year".

Even with the precious metal gold, the experts are optimistic. The forecasts, however, move in a fairly wide range of 1 100 to 1 350 dollars per troy ounce (31.1 grams). Gold offers a long-term protection against inflation, it says in the Credit Suisse. On the other hand, the Swiss warn that gold has often proved to be vulnerable if U.S. interest rates are again tightened.