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The mega-trends are back


Such numbers impress you, at least at first glance. In 2015 50 percent of European new car registrations electric or hybrid cars should be. As early as 2025, only those vehicles will be produced. It maintains a study by the University of Applied Sciences Gelsenkirchen. Fund manager Thomas Bauer cited this analysis is happy, because he firmly believes that electric mobility will be the next big mega trend. Since June 2009 he bought the Absolute Future Mobility Fund Only shares of companies that are directly or indirectly involved in the industry.

When the stock markets are booming and all common fund to the investors who are brought to be with great regularity Trend Fund conjured out of the hat. "Currently, renewable energy and raw materials are specially announced," observes Lars Labryga of the protection of German investors (SdK). Trend funds invest specifically in companies that produce for an industry that is currently in or predicted to be the great growth potential. In recent months, the fund companies were again felt new and creative trends – mostly occupied by well-intentioned studies.

China, U.S. pioneer in electro-mobility

Example Future Mobility Fund: For electric cars is the federal government far less optimistic. They count for 2020, barely a million cars. When she announced in August that it would support the purchase of the first 100 000 units, wanted to commit himself on this, no specific sum of incentives, farmers are reported promptly by press release speak out. As "e-mobility expert," he criticized the plans as a half-hearted, and suggested that municipalities should encourage the purchase of electric cars with free parking and tolls.

China and the U.S. for instance, might ensure that Bauer’s vision of a new mega-trend is still true. As early as 2020, half of all Chinese cars will be electrically driven, he has read. President Obama wants to see in 2015 one million electric cars on the road and supported the development of technology, with 2.4 billion U.S. dollars. Bauer, therefore, the Fund has focused on these countries. Largest book is currently in custody BYD, a Chinese car and battery company, which has introduced 2009, two electric car models and also to the investment guru Warren Buffet holds ten percent. Behind them followed the American battery manufacturer Advanced Battery and A123.

In the selection of the shares fund managers according to their own information Bauer respects less back to business metrics or sector indices, but specifically looking for the "Leader", which is currently preparing for electric mobility. Farmer: "I read carefully press coverage, the phone with companies and organizations who pursue the plans and wants to invest in electric mobility." Whether this is sufficient research and the fund actually yields rich returns to be seen but still.

A mega-trend follows the next

But Electric Mobility is not the only new mega-trend, the fund companies have discovered recently. Frankfurt Trust launched in November, the FT Global Diversified Infrastructure Fund (ISIN: DE000A0NEBS3). The infrastructure sector will be "key medium-term forecast" growth potential – both through the opened throughout the crisis recovery programs in industrialized countries, on the other by the general economic development in emerging countries. A formal study is not cited for this, however.

The fund specializes in shares of the sectors transport, utilities, waste management and communications. The selection of songs leaves you at Frankfurt Trust’s own software. The "quantitative BMR + model" is to identify a portfolio of 80 to 100 of the most promising infrastructure title. Fund manager Birgit Ebner examine the depot then the risk of clustering, layering the shares may, if publishes current profit warnings and regulatory changes.

Also in the solar industry since October, investors can invest directly – with the Photovoltaic Warburg Global 30 . The fund is based on photovoltaic Global 30 index. This company are gathered from the solar industry, including solar electricity, solar cell manufacturers, service technicians and contractors. In contrast to the index, the Fund focuses on smaller solar companies, such as Canadian Solar. Intended, the management’s strategy of offering a higher growth potential. In addition, newcomers such as Manz at the depot, while not invested in stocks of Q-Cells, Conergy and NPC because of the high indebtedness of the company.

Michael Hönger, Initiator of the Fund, believes in a soon boom in the solar sector. After the price of photovoltaic systems are massively down, he expects that will rule in two years time grid parity – that is, households that retirement planning can be even cheaper with electricity. Thus a run on photovoltaic technology would be triggered. Hönger also has a matching study at hand – from the Bank Sarasin. Accordingly, the growth rates for the solar industry over the next three years will range from 45 to 50 percent. "It’s unbelievable. With our sharp funds, we will share in this growth, "whispers Hönger.

Gerrit more sober Frey sees such a trend by the German Aktieninstitut fund: "Unlike Europe-wide and global equity funds, the industry is significantly smaller dispersion in special funds, which is associated with an increased risk." The fund managers are bound up in the hands of bad times, because they can invest only in the given subject area. "The investment performance depends on whether the market is developing according to expectations and can never be accurately predicted," says Frey on.

Biotechnology and IT flopped

The fact that not every trend is a long-term success, shows a glimpse into the past. The Allianz RCM Biotechnology A has, since its peak in 2000, lost about half its value. Even bigger are the losses in Postbank Global Economy, The focus is investing in Internet stocks. Numerous other trend funds fared just as badly and quickly disappeared, despite sounding proclamations from the market.

Private investors should therefore be best to invest a small portion of their assets in special funds. Frey: "As a basic investment in the stock market, I always recommend a broad scattering Fund."